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January 28, 2009 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.00–0.25% unchanged Vote 8–1 · Dissents: Lacker Tone: Clearly dovish -1.00

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to establish a keep its target range for the federal funds rate of at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time.

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures have diminished appreciably. In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the weaker prospects for considerable economic activity, slack, the Committee expects that inflation to moderate further pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. In particular, The focus of the Committee anticipates Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that weak economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels keep the size of the federal funds rate for some time. Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.  Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Since the Committee's last meeting, labor market conditions have deteriorated, and the available data indicate that consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined.  Financial markets remain quite strained and credit conditions tight.  Overall, the outlook for economic activity has weakened further.

The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.  As previously announced, over the next few quarters the Federal Reserve will purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities as conditions warrant.  The Committee is also evaluating the potential benefits of purchasing longer-term Treasury securities.  Early next year, the Federal Reserve will also implement the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses.  The Federal Reserve will continue to consider ways of using its balance sheet to further support credit markets and economic activity.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 75-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and San Francisco.  The Board also established interest rates on required and excess reserve balances of 1/4 percent.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • Held the federal funds rate target range at 0 to 1/4 percent, shifting from establishing to maintaining it.
  • Revised economic outlook: notes further weakening, but anticipates a gradual recovery later this year with significant downside risks.
  • Changed inflation language: expects subdued pressures and sees a risk of inflation persisting below longer-term optimal levels.
  • Strengthened balance sheet policy: stands ready to expand the quantity and duration of agency debt and MBS purchases, and is prepared to buy longer-term Treasuries.
  • Vote was not unanimous; Jeffrey M. Lacker dissented, preferring to expand the monetary base through Treasury purchases rather than targeted credit programs.

Implications

The shift from evaluating to being prepared to purchase longer-term Treasuries signals a potential move toward quantitative easing if conditions worsen, while the explicit downside risks suggest the FOMC may act further. The acknowledgment of inflation running below target for a time hints that policy could stay accommodative longer, and the dissent indicates internal debate over the composition of asset purchases.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.