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March 18, 2009 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.00–0.25% unchanged Vote 10–0 Tone: Clearly dovish -1.00

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract.  Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending.  Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment.  U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession.  Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities in recent months and the prospects for considerable increasing economic slack, slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters. subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

The In these circumstances, the Federal Open Market Committee decided today Reserve will employ all available tools to keep its promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. The Committee continues to anticipate percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time. an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further. Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending. Furthermore, global demand appears to be slowing significantly. Conditions in some financial markets have improved, in part reflecting government efforts to provide liquidity and strengthen financial institutions; nevertheless, credit conditions for households and firms remain extremely tight. The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.

The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote the resumption of sustainable economic growth and to preserve price stability. The focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. The Federal Reserve continues to purchase large quantities of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities to provide support to the mortgage and housing markets, and it stands ready to expand the quantity of such purchases and the duration of the purchase program as conditions warrant. The Committee also is prepared to purchase longer-term Treasury securities if evolving circumstances indicate that such transactions would be particularly effective in improving conditions in private credit markets. The Federal Reserve will be implementing the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses. The Committee will continue to monitor carefully the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial market developments and to assess whether expansions of or modifications to lending facilities would serve to further support credit markets and economic activity and help to preserve price stability.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC upgraded its economic assessment from 'weakened further' to 'continues to contract,' citing job losses, wealth declines, and tight credit, and removed the expectation of a recovery later this year.
  • The Fed announced it will purchase up to an additional $750 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing total purchases to $1.25 trillion, and increase agency debt purchases by $100 billion to $200 billion.
  • The Fed decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months, a new measure not previously committed to.
  • The statement changed the forward guidance on the federal funds rate from 'for some time' to 'for an extended period.'
  • The vote was unanimous; Jeffrey Lacker, who previously dissented, voted with the majority, and Daniel Tarullo joined the FOMC.

Implications

The shift to 'extended period' signals a longer commitment to low rates, reinforcing the easing bias. The expansion of asset purchases, including Treasury securities, suggests a more aggressive balance sheet policy to support credit markets and the economy. The unanimous vote indicates stronger internal consensus for the current policy direction.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.