June 20, 2012
April 25, 2012
Statement·Presser·Minutes·Policy
BBBen S. BernankeJune 20, 2012 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March April suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Labor market conditions have improved moderately this year. However, growth in employment has slowed in recent months; months, and the unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business Business fixed investment have has continued to advance. Household spending appears to be rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has picked up somewhat, declined, mainly reflecting higher lower prices of crude oil and gasoline. However, gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually. Consequently, the Committee anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually only slowly toward levels that it judges to be consistent with its dual mandate. Strains Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The increase in oil and gasoline prices earlier this year is expected to affect inflation only temporarily, and the Committee anticipates that subsequently inflation over the medium term will run at or below the rate that it judges most consistent with its dual mandate.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy. In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
The Committee also decided to continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities. Specifically, the Committee intends to purchase Treasury securities as announced in September. with remaining maturities of 6 years to 30 years at the current pace and to sell or redeem an equal amount of Treasury securities with remaining maturities of approximately 3 years or less. This continuation of the maturity extension program should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative. The Committee is maintaining its existing policies policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. securities. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings and is prepared to adjust those holdings take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Dennis P. Lockhart; Sandra Pianalto; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; John C. Williams; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who does not anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels opposed continuation of the federal funds rate through late 2014. maturity extension program.
Statement Regarding Continuation of the Maturity Extension Program
Our summary
What changed
- The FOMC noted that employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate remains elevated, while household spending is rising at a slower pace.
- Inflation is now described as having declined, mainly due to lower oil and gasoline prices, rather than having picked up.
- The economic outlook was revised to expect growth to pick up 'very gradually' and unemployment to decline 'only slowly.'
- The maturity extension program was extended through the end of the year, with specific purchases of 6- to 30-year Treasuries and sales of shorter-dated ones.
- The FOMC added that it is prepared to take further action as appropriate, and Lacker dissented specifically against the maturity extension program.
Implications
The downgraded labor market and inflation outlook, along with the explicit readiness to act further, signal a more dovish stance and a higher likelihood of additional easing.
Extending the maturity extension program with defined parameters suggests the FOMC is committed to keeping long-term rates low, which markets may interpret as a step toward more aggressive stimulus if conditions do not improve.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.
Projections
Each dot is one participant's projection of the federal funds rate (%) at the end of each year and in the longer run.
June April median April median
Scroll the chart sideways for the later years.
Press conference
June 20, 2012, 2:30 p.m. ET · Read the transcript
What Bernanke said that the statement didn't
- The chair said the FOMC participants' projections for the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2012 have a central tendency of 8.0 to 8.2 percent, declining to 7.0 to 7.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.
- The chair said the participants' projections of inflation have a central tendency of 1.2 to 1.7 percent for 2012 and 1.5 to 2.0 percent for 2014.
- The chair said the Federal Reserve was too optimistic early in the recovery about the pace of recovery and had to add additional accommodation as headwinds kept the recovery from being as strong as desired.
- The chair said the Fed's asset purchase programs, QE1 and QE2, had significant effects on asset prices and financial conditions, and QE2 ended what looked to be an incipient deflation problem.
- The chair said the Fed is prepared to take further action, including additional asset purchases, if needed to strengthen the economy, but such nonstandard programs carry costs and risks related to market functioning, financial stability, and the exit process.
Summary generated automatically from the transcript and the statement.