November 03, 2010
September 21, 2010
Statement·Presser·Minutes
BBBen S. BernankeNovember 3, 2010 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued continue to contract, be depressed. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels measures of resource utilization underlying inflation have trended lower in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term. recent quarters.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.
To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period. The Committee also will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared will employ its policy tools as necessary to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return help ensure that inflation, over time, to is at levels consistent with its mandate.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. Mr. Hoenig believed the risks of additional securities purchases outweighed the benefits. Mr. Hoenig also was concerned that this continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.
Statement from Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent, over the longer run, with its mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judged that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and will lead to future imbalances that undermine stable long-run growth. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that continuing to reinvest principal payments from its securities holdings was required to support the Committee’s policy objectives.
Our summary
What changed
- The FOMC announced it will purchase an additional $600 billion in longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, about $75 billion per month, while maintaining its reinvestment policy.
- The statement upgraded the recovery language from 'pace has slowed' to 'continues to be slow' and noted that progress toward the FOMC's objectives has been 'disappointingly slow.'
- Inflation language was revised: underlying inflation measures 'have trended lower in recent quarters,' and the FOMC now frames its objectives in terms of its dual mandate with the unemployment rate elevated.
- The new statement explicitly says the securities purchases are intended to promote a stronger recovery and ensure inflation returns to mandate-consistent levels, and that the program will be regularly reviewed and adjusted as needed.
- The vote changed: Sarah Bloom Raskin and Janet Yellen joined the majority, while Thomas Hoenig was the sole dissenter, now opposing the additional purchases rather than the extended low-rate guidance.
Implications
The explicit size and pace of asset purchases signals a stronger commitment to additional accommodation than the prior statement's general offer to provide it if needed.
The phrase 'disappointingly slow' suggests the FOMC is less patient with the recovery's pace, indicating a bias toward further policy action if progress does not pick up.
Markets may view the shift toward the dual mandate framing as emphasizing employment alongside inflation, likely reinforcing expectations that policy will stay accommodative until the labor market improves substantially.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.