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March 16, 2010 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.00–0.25% unchanged Vote 9–1 · Dissents: Hoenig ↑ Tone: Clearly dovish -0.97

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by a weak labor market, high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software appears to be picking up, but has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is still contracting declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Firms have brought inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve is in the process of has been purchasing $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee is gradually slowing the pace of these purchases, debt; those purchases are nearing completion, and it anticipates that these the remaining transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter. this month. The Committee will continue to evaluate its purchases of securities in light of monitor the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve has been closing the special liquidity facilities that it created to support markets during the crisis. The only remaining such program, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, is scheduled to close on June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and on March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted. warranted because it could lead to the buildup of financial imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability.

In light of improved functioning of financial markets, the Federal Reserve will be closing the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, and the Term Securities Lending Facility on February 1, as previously announced. In addition, the temporary liquidity swap arrangements between the Federal Reserve and other central banks will expire on February 1. The Federal Reserve is in the process of winding down its Term Auction Facility: $50 billion in 28-day credit will be offered on February 8 and $25 billion in 28-day credit will be offered at the final auction on March 8. The anticipated expiration dates for the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility remain set at June 30 for loans backed by new-issue commercial mortgage-backed securities and March 31 for loans backed by all other types of collateral. The Federal Reserve is prepared to modify these plans if necessary to support financial stability and economic growth.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC upgraded its labor market assessment from 'deterioration abating' to 'stabilizing' and noted business equipment and software spending has risen significantly.
  • It added that nonresidential structures investment is declining and housing starts are flat at a depressed level, while removing the mention of inventory alignment.
  • The Fed indicated its agency MBS and debt purchases are nearing completion, with remaining transactions to be executed by the end of March, and dropped the plan to slow purchases.
  • The statement replaced the detailed list of expiring liquidity facilities with a general note that these facilities have been closing, leaving only the TALF with its scheduled closure dates.
  • The dissent by Thomas Hoenig was updated to cite concerns about financial imbalances and longer-run risks from the extended low-rate expectation.

Implications

The shift to 'stabilizing' labor market and the near-completion of asset purchases suggest the Fed is moving toward normalizing its crisis-era programs, while still maintaining the extended low-rate guidance.

The removal of specific facility closure details and the addition of a commitment to use policy tools as necessary indicate a more flexible, data-dependent approach to future policy adjustments.

Hoenig's updated dissent highlights internal debate about the risks of prolonged low rates, which markets may interpret as a signal of potential future policy tightening if conditions improve.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.