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June 24, 2009 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.00–0.25% unchanged Vote 10–0 Tone: Clearly dovish -0.99

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates April suggests that the economy has continued to contract, though the pace of economic contraction appears to be somewhat slower. is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Weak sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut Businesses are cutting back on inventories, fixed investment, investment and staffing. staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although the economic outlook has improved modestly since the March meeting, partly reflecting some easing of financial market conditions, economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time. Nonetheless, time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating monitoring the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's its balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments. will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC upgraded its economic assessment, saying the pace of contraction is slowing and financial market conditions have generally improved, versus the prior statement's 'somewhat slower' contraction.
  • Household spending is described as showing 'further signs of stabilizing,' and businesses are now seen as making progress in aligning inventories with sales, a more positive tone than before.
  • The inflation paragraph was revised: the FOMC now notes rising energy and commodity prices but expects inflation to remain subdued 'for some time,' dropping the earlier explicit risk of inflation persisting below longer-run optimal rates.
  • The balance sheet language shifted from 'carefully monitor' to 'monitoring' and added that the Fed 'will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted,' signaling more flexibility.
  • The current statement omits the voting paragraph that appeared in the previous statement.

Implications

The upgraded language on growth and financial conditions suggests the FOMC sees the worst of the downturn as past, though it still expects weakness for a time.

The removal of the explicit deflation risk and the addition of commodity price increases indicate a slightly less dovish inflation outlook, but the commitment to low rates for an extended period remains unchanged.

The new balance sheet language hints at potential adjustments to credit and liquidity programs, which markets might read as a willingness to taper or alter support as conditions improve.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.