March 17–18 · Published April 8, 2026
Jerome H. Powell
March 17–18, 2026 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes are consistent with the statement because both reflect a decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid elevated uncertainty, citing solid economic growth, low job gains, and inflation above target, with the minutes detailing participants' views on the risks and rationale behind that unanimous (except for one dissent) policy choice.
Our reading compares the minutes of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Michael S. Barr
- Michelle W. Bowman
- Lisa D. Cook
- Beth M. Hammack
- Philip N. Jefferson
- Neel Kashkari
- Lorie K. Logan
- Stephen I. Miran ↓ dissented
- Preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
- Anna Paulson
- Jerome H. Powell
- Christopher J. Waller
- John C. Williams
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Voting against this action: Stephen I. Miran.
Stephen I. Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.
Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to maintain the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65 percent, effective March 19, 2026. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve the establishment of the primary credit rate at the existing level of 3.75 percent.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, April 28–29, 2026. The meeting adjourned at 10:15 a.m. on March 18, 2026.
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- Dissent count fell from two to one, with Waller joining the majority and Miran alone preferring a 25 basis point cut.
- Participants noted near-term inflation expectations had risen due to a substantial oil price increase from Middle East events.
- The vast majority judged the risk of inflation running persistently above target had increased, a shift from the prior "meaningful" risk.
- Most participants said downside risks to employment were elevated, whereas the prior minutes said they had moderated.
- The postmeeting statement added a sentence that the implications of Middle East developments for the U.S. economy are uncertain.
- Participants discussed balance sheet and monetary policy implementation, including standing repo operations, a topic absent from the January minutes.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.