March 18, 2026
Jerome H. Powell
March 18, 2026 FOMC Press Conference
- The median SEP projection for real GDP growth this year is 2.4 percent, up from the December projection.
- The median SEP projection for the unemployment rate at the end of this year is 4.4 percent, with a slight decline thereafter.
- The median SEP projection for total PCE inflation this year is 2.7 percent, higher than the December projection.
- The median SEP projection for the federal funds rate is 3.4 percent at the end of this year and 3.1 percent at the end of next year, unchanged from December.
- The chair said that between a half and three-quarters of the 3 percent core PCE inflation is attributable to tariffs.
From the opening statement
Press conference
CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. The U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.
Today, the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to promote progress toward our maximum-employment and 2 percent inflation goals. The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. We will remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate. And I’ll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in December.