March 15, 2017
February 01, 2017
March 15, 2017 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For release at 2:00 p.m. EST EDT
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its was little changed in recent low. months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. Measures of consumer and business sentiment appears to have improved of late. firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters but is still below quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.
Implementation Note issued February 1, March 15, 2017
Our summary
What changed
- Raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent, from 1/2 to 3/4 percent.
- Upgraded the economic assessment: business fixed investment 'appears to have firmed somewhat' and inflation is 'moving close to' the 2 percent objective, with core inflation still below 2 percent.
- Changed the inflation outlook from 'rise to 2 percent' to 'stabilize around 2 percent' and now references a 'symmetric inflation goal'.
- Noted a dissent: Neel Kashkari voted against the action, preferring to maintain the existing target range.
- Reaffirmed the balance sheet reinvestment policy and the expectation of 'gradual increases' in the federal funds rate.
Implications
The language suggests the FOMC sees inflation as closer to its target and is comfortable with gradual tightening, while the reference to a symmetric goal signals tolerance for inflation modestly above 2 percent.
The dissent indicates internal disagreement about the timing of the hike, but the overall tone remains consistent with a gradual path of rate increases.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.
Projections
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 2.1 | 2.1 was 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 was 4.8 |
| PCE inflation | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Core PCE inflation | 1.9 was 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Federal funds rate | 1.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 was 2.9 | 3.0 |
Median projections of FOMC participants; previous: December.
Each dot is one participant's projection of the federal funds rate (%) at the end of each year and in the longer run.
March December median December median
Scroll the chart sideways for the later years.
Implementation Note
The settings that put the decision into effect: the interest rate paid on reserves, the FOMC's instructions to the New York Fed's trading desk, and the discount rate. Changes are marked the same way as in the statement.
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to
maintainraise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balancesat 0.75 percent.to 1.00 percent, effective March 16, 2017. - As part of its policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to authorize and direct the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Open Market Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Effective
February 2,March 16, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of1/2 to3/4 to 1 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations (and reverse repurchase operations with maturities of more than one day when necessary to accommodate weekend, holiday, or similar trading conventions) at an offering rate of0.500.75 percent, in amounts limited only by the value of Treasury securities held outright in the System Open Market Account that are available for such operations and by a per-counterparty limit of $30 billion per day. The Committee directs the Desk to continue rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction and to continue reinvesting principal payments on all agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. The Committee also directs the Desk to engage in dollar roll and coupon swap transactions as necessary to facilitate settlement of the Federal Reserve's agency mortgage-backed securities transactions." More information regarding open market operations may be found on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's website. - In a related action, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to approve a 1/4 percentage point increase in the
establishment of theprimary credit rateatto 1.50 percent, effective March 16, 2017. In taking this action, theexisting levelBoard approved requests to establish that rate submitted by the Boards of1.25 percent.Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.
Press conference
March 15, 2017, 2:30 p.m. ET · Read the transcript
What Yellen said that the statement didn't
- The Chair declined to provide a specific quantitative definition of "well under way" regarding balance sheet normalization, framing it instead in qualitative terms related to confidence in the economic trajectory and balanced risks.
- The Chair said the neutral nominal federal funds rate is currently quite low by historical standards, with longer-run real neutral rate estimates around 1 percent or slightly below, and some current estimates placing it near zero in real terms.
- The Chair stated that the FOMC had not discussed detailed responses to potential fiscal policy changes from the new Administration, emphasizing that today’s decision was based solely on progress toward the Fed’s dual mandate.
- The Chair explained that removing the word "only" before "gradual" in the statement should not be overinterpreted, noting it was a small change and that economic projections were virtually unchanged from December.
- The Chair said she had met a couple of times with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and had a brief introduction to President Trump, with discussions covering the economy, regulatory objectives, FSOC work, and global developments.
Summary generated automatically from the transcript and the statement.