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March 15, 2017 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.75–1.00% ▲ raised 0.25 pp Vote 9–1 · Dissents: Kashkari ↓ Tone: Leaning hawkish +0.25

FOMC statement

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

For release at 2:00 p.m. EST EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its was little changed in recent low. months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft. Measures of consumer and business sentiment appears to have improved of late. firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters but is still below quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to stabilize around 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 to 1 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action was Neel Kashkari, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the existing target range for the federal funds rate.

Implementation Note issued February 1, March 15, 2017

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • Raised the target range for the federal funds rate to 3/4 to 1 percent, from 1/2 to 3/4 percent.
  • Upgraded the economic assessment: business fixed investment 'appears to have firmed somewhat' and inflation is 'moving close to' the 2 percent objective, with core inflation still below 2 percent.
  • Changed the inflation outlook from 'rise to 2 percent' to 'stabilize around 2 percent' and now references a 'symmetric inflation goal'.
  • Noted a dissent: Neel Kashkari voted against the action, preferring to maintain the existing target range.
  • Reaffirmed the balance sheet reinvestment policy and the expectation of 'gradual increases' in the federal funds rate.

Implications

The language suggests the FOMC sees inflation as closer to its target and is comfortable with gradual tightening, while the reference to a symmetric goal signals tolerance for inflation modestly above 2 percent.

The dissent indicates internal disagreement about the timing of the hike, but the overall tone remains consistent with a gradual path of rate increases.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.

Projections

201720182019Longer run
Real GDP growth2.12.1 was 2.01.91.8
Unemployment rate4.54.54.54.7 was 4.8
PCE inflation1.92.02.02.0
Core PCE inflation1.9 was 1.82.02.0
Federal funds rate1.42.13.0 was 2.93.0

Median projections of FOMC participants; previous: December.

Each dot is one participant's projection of the federal funds rate (%) at the end of each year and in the longer run.

March December median December median

43.8753.753.6253.53.3753.253.12532.8752.752.6252.52.3752.252.12521.8751.751.6251.51.3751.251.12510.8750.750.6250.5 March median 1.375% December median 1.375% December: 0.875%, 2 participantsDecember: 0.875%, 2 participantsDecember: 1.125%, 4 participantsDecember: 1.125%, 4 participantsDecember: 1.125%, 4 participantsDecember: 1.125%, 4 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.375%, 6 participantsDecember: 1.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 1.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 1.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 1.75%, 1 participant (none now)December: 2.125%, 1 participant 0.875%: 2 participants now, 2 in December0.875%: 2 participants now, 2 in December1.125%: 1 participant now, 4 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.375%: 9 participants now, 6 in December1.625%: 4 participants now, 3 in December1.625%: 4 participants now, 3 in December1.625%: 4 participants now, 3 in December1.625%: 4 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 1 participant now, 1 in December 2017 median 1.375% was 1.375%December median 1.375% March median 2.125% December median 2.125% December: 0.875%, 1 participantDecember: 1.625%, 1 participantDecember: 1.875%, 5 participantsDecember: 1.875%, 5 participantsDecember: 1.875%, 5 participantsDecember: 1.875%, 5 participantsDecember: 1.875%, 5 participantsDecember: 2.125%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.125%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.125%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.375%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.375%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.625%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.625%, 2 participantsDecember: 3%, 1 participantDecember: 3.25%, 1 participantDecember: 3.375%, 1 participant 0.875%: 1 participant now, 1 in December1.625%: 1 participant now, 1 in December1.875%: 1 participant now, 5 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.125%: 6 participants now, 3 in December2.375%: 3 participants now, 2 in December2.375%: 3 participants now, 2 in December2.375%: 3 participants now, 2 in December2.625%: 1 participant now, 2 in December2.875%: 1 participant now, 0 in December3%: 1 participant now, 1 in December3.25%: 1 participant now, 1 in December3.375%: 1 participant now, 1 in December 2018 median 2.125% was 2.125%December median 2.125% March median 3% December median 2.875% December: 0.875%, 1 participantDecember: 2.125%, 1 participant (none now)December: 2.375%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.375%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.625%, 3 participantsDecember: 2.875%, 2 participantsDecember: 2.875%, 2 participantsDecember: 3%, 2 participantsDecember: 3%, 2 participantsDecember: 3.125%, 2 participantsDecember: 3.125%, 2 participantsDecember: 3.25%, 2 participantsDecember: 3.25%, 2 participantsDecember: 3.625%, 1 participant (none now)December: 3.875%, 1 participant 0.875%: 1 participant now, 1 in December2.375%: 2 participants now, 2 in December2.375%: 2 participants now, 2 in December2.625%: 2 participants now, 3 in December2.625%: 2 participants now, 3 in December2.875%: 3 participants now, 2 in December2.875%: 3 participants now, 2 in December2.875%: 3 participants now, 2 in December3%: 2 participants now, 2 in December3%: 2 participants now, 2 in December3.125%: 3 participants now, 2 in December3.125%: 3 participants now, 2 in December3.125%: 3 participants now, 2 in December3.25%: 2 participants now, 2 in December3.25%: 2 participants now, 2 in December3.875%: 2 participants now, 1 in December3.875%: 2 participants now, 1 in December 2019 median 3% was 2.875%December median 2.875% March median 3% December median 3% December: 2.5%, 1 participantDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 2.75%, 6 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3%, 7 participantsDecember: 3.5%, 1 participantDecember: 3.75%, 1 participant 2.5%: 1 participant now, 1 in December2.75%: 5 participants now, 6 in December2.75%: 5 participants now, 6 in December2.75%: 5 participants now, 6 in December2.75%: 5 participants now, 6 in December2.75%: 5 participants now, 6 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3%: 8 participants now, 7 in December3.5%: 1 participant now, 1 in December3.75%: 1 participant now, 1 in December Longer run median 3% was 3%December median 3%

Scroll the chart sideways for the later years.

Implementation Note

The settings that put the decision into effect: the interest rate paid on reserves, the FOMC's instructions to the New York Fed's trading desk, and the discount rate. Changes are marked the same way as in the statement.

Source

Press conference

March 15, 2017, 2:30 p.m. ET · Read the transcript

What Yellen said that the statement didn't

Summary generated automatically from the transcript and the statement.