July 29, 2015
June 17, 2015
Statement·Presser·Minutes
JYJanet L. YellenJuly 29, 2015 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based survey‑based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.
Our summary
What changed
- Updated the economic assessment to reflect data through June, noting moderate expansion in recent months and additional housing improvement.
- Revised labor market language to say solid job gains and declining unemployment, with underutilization diminished since early this year.
- Dropped the reference to energy prices appearing to have stabilized, now only citing earlier declines in energy and import prices.
- Changed the threshold for liftoff from 'further improvement' to 'some further improvement' in the labor market.
- Maintained the target range, reinvestment policy, and forward guidance; the vote was unanimous.
Implications
The shift to 'some further improvement' suggests the FOMC is slightly closer to considering a rate hike, though it still conditions liftoff on confidence in inflation returning to target.
The removal of the energy stabilization comment and the more positive labor market description indicate a modest upgrade in the near-term outlook, which markets may read as a step toward normalization.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.