June 18, 2014
April 30, 2014
Statement·Presser·Minutes·Policy
JYJanet L. YellenJune 18, 2014 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March April indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter rebounded in part because of adverse weather conditions. recent months. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, though lower, remains elevated. Household spending appears to be rising more quickly. Business moderately and business fixed investment edged down, resumed its advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in May, July, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 $15 billion per month rather than $25 $20 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 $20 billion per month rather than $30 $25 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Loretta J. Mester; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities
Our summary
What changed
- The FOMC trimmed its monthly asset purchases beginning in July: MBS purchases will drop from $20 billion to $15 billion, and Treasury purchases from $25 billion to $20 billion.
- Economic language was upgraded: growth 'rebounded' (vs. 'picked up'), labor market indicators 'generally showed further improvement' (vs. 'were mixed but on balance'), and business fixed investment 'resumed its advance' (vs. 'edged down').
- The unemployment rate is now described as 'though lower, remains elevated' (vs. 'remains elevated').
- Household spending is now 'rising moderately' (vs. 'rising more quickly').
- Two new voting members are listed: Lael Brainard and Stanley Fischer, replacing Sandra Pianalto and Jeremy C. Stein; the vote count remains unanimous as all ten members voted for the action.
Implications
The more positive economic description, especially the rebound in growth and improved labor market, supports the continued tapering of asset purchases.
The unchanged forward guidance on the federal funds rate suggests the FOMC still expects to keep rates near zero for a considerable time after the purchase program ends, but the stronger outlook may lead markets to anticipate earlier rate hikes if labor market gains persist.
The shift in voting members is personnel-related and not tied to policy stance, but the unanimity of the vote signals broad internal agreement on the current path.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.
Projections
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | ||||
| Unemployment rate | ||||
| PCE inflation | ||||
| Core PCE inflation | ||||
| Federal funds rate |
Median projections of FOMC participants; previous: March.
Each dot is one participant's projection of the federal funds rate (%) at the end of each year and in the longer run.
June March median March median
Scroll the chart sideways for the later years.
Press conference
June 18, 2014, 2:30 p.m. ET · Read the transcript
What Yellen said that the statement didn't
- The unemployment rate stood at 6.3 percent, four-tenths lower than at the March meeting, and the broader U-6 measure had fallen by a similar amount.
- The central tendency of FOMC participants' projections for the unemployment rate at the end of 2014 was 6.0 to 6.1 percent, slightly lower than in March.
- The central tendency of real GDP growth projections for 2014 was 2.1 to 2.3 percent, down notably from March, largely due to the unexpected first-quarter contraction.
- The central tendency of inflation projections was 1.5 to 1.7 percent in 2014, rising to 1.6 to 2 percent in 2016.
- The FOMC's discussions on normalizing monetary policy were not a signal of imminent change, but prudent planning, with additional details expected later this year.
Summary generated automatically from the transcript and the statement.