March 20, 2013
January 30, 2013
March 20, 2013 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December January suggests that growth in a return to moderate economic activity paused growth following a pause late last year. Labor market conditions have shown signs of improvement in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors. Employment has continued to expand at a moderate pace months but the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has shown further improvement. strengthened further, but fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive. Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee’s Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. Although strains in global financial markets have eased somewhat, the The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee will decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until such improvement is achieved the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases. purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee’s Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Jerome H. Powell; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against the action was Esther L. George, who was concerned that the continued high level of monetary accommodation increased the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, could cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations.
Our summary
What changed
- The FOMC upgraded its assessment of growth, noting a return to moderate expansion after a pause, and saw signs of labor market improvement.
- It added that fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive, a new factor in the outlook.
- The asset purchase guidance was revised: purchases will continue until the labor market outlook has improved substantially, rather than if it does not improve.
- The FOMC said it will account for progress toward its economic objectives when determining the size, pace, and composition of purchases.
- The vote was 11-1, with Esther L. George dissenting for the same reason as before.
Implications
The shift from a conditional easing bias to a more neutral, outcome-based commitment suggests the FOMC is less concerned about near-term weakness and more focused on seeing sustained improvement.
The explicit mention of fiscal restraint and the emphasis on progress in the labor market could be read as a signal that the pace of purchases may be adjusted as conditions evolve, though no change was made at this meeting.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.
Projections
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Longer run | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | ||||
| Unemployment rate | ||||
| PCE inflation | ||||
| Core PCE inflation | ||||
| Federal funds rate |
Median projections of FOMC participants; previous: December.
Each dot is one participant's projection of the federal funds rate (%) at the end of each year and in the longer run.
March December median December median
Scroll the chart sideways for the later years.
Press conference
March 20, 2013, 2:30 p.m. ET · Read the transcript
What Bernanke said that the statement didn't
- The chair said the 19 FOMC participants' projections had a central tendency for 2013 economic growth of 2.3 to 2.8 percent, rising to 2.9 to 3.7 percent in 2015.
- The chair said the central tendency of participants' unemployment rate projections was 7.3 to 7.5 percent for the fourth quarter of 2013, declining to 6.0 to 6.5 percent by the final quarter of 2015.
- The chair said 14 of the 19 FOMC participants saw the first increase in the federal funds rate target as occurring in 2015 or 2016.
- The chair said the FOMC could vary the monthly pace of asset purchases as progress was made toward its objectives, and that no adjustment was warranted at this meeting.
- The chair said the recent increases in gasoline prices appeared to be due mostly to passing factors such as refinery shutdowns for maintenance.
Summary generated automatically from the transcript and the statement.