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January 26, 2011 FOMC Statement

Target range 0.00–0.25% unchanged Vote 11–0 Tone: Clearly dovish -0.99

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at about a moderate pace, significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising, though less rapidly than earlier in the year, while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Longer-term Although commodity prices have risen, longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable, but and measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend been trending downward.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate. Although the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, progress toward its objectives has been disappointingly slow.

To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. The In particular, the Committee will maintain is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition, the Committee holdings and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011, a pace of about $75 billion per month. 2011. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to support the economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Sandra Pianalto; Charles L. Evans; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Charles I. Plosser; Sarah Bloom Raskin; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig. In light of the improving economy, Mr. Hoenig was concerned that a continued high level of monetary accommodation would increase the risks of future economic and financial imbalances and, over time, would cause an increase in long-term inflation expectations that could destabilize the economy.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC noted that the economic recovery remains insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions, a slightly stronger characterization than before.
  • Household spending growth is described as having picked up late last year, and business spending on equipment and software is now described as rising without the earlier caveat of being less rapid.
  • The statement adds that commodity prices have risen, while still noting stable longer-term inflation expectations and underlying inflation trending downward.
  • The asset purchase program is unchanged: the FOMC maintains reinvestment and intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of Q2 2011.
  • The voting lineup changed: new voters include Evans, Fisher, Kocherlakota, and Plosser, while Bullard and Pianalto are no longer listed; no dissents are recorded in the current statement.

Implications

The upgraded language on household spending and labor market suggests the FOMC sees a slightly firmer recovery, though it retains the view that progress remains slow.

The mention of rising commodity prices without a change in inflation expectations signals that the FOMC is monitoring inflation risks but still sees underlying inflation as low, supporting the continuation of accommodative policy.

The removal of the dissent and the change in voting membership may indicate a more unified stance, but the statement itself does not address any internal disagreements.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.