November 04, 2009
September 23, 2009
Statement·Presser·Minutes
BBBen S. BernankeNovember 4, 2009 FOMC Statement
FOMC statement
FOMC statement
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August September suggests that economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn. continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased. increased over recent months. Household spending seems appears to be stabilizing, expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.
In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 about $175 billion of agency debt. The Committee will gradually slow amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the pace previously announced maximum of these $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases in and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that they these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.
Our summary
What changed
- Economic activity is described as having 'continued to pick up' rather than just 'picked up', and housing sector activity has increased over recent months.
- Household spending is now said to 'appear to be expanding' instead of 'seems to be stabilizing'.
- The Fed lowered its agency debt purchase cap from $200 billion to about $175 billion, citing limited availability, while keeping the MBS purchase total at $1.25 trillion.
- The forward guidance on the federal funds rate now explicitly cites low resource utilization, subdued inflation, and stable inflation expectations as conditions warranting low rates.
- The statement clarifies that the pace of both agency debt and MBS purchases will be slowed gradually, with completion still expected by end of Q1 2010.
Implications
The upgraded language on economic activity and household spending suggests the FOMC sees a slightly firmer recovery, though it still expects weak conditions for a time.
The reduction in the agency debt purchase program signals a modest scaling back of balance sheet expansion, consistent with the limited supply of eligible debt, and may be read as a step toward eventual normalization.
The explicit mention of inflation expectations in the rate guidance reinforces the FOMC's commitment to keeping rates low for an extended period, anchoring market expectations of policy patience.
Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.