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June 18, 2007 FOMC Statement

Target rate 5.25% unchanged Vote 10–0 Tone: Leaning hawkish +0.52

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Economic growth slowed in appears to have been moderate during the first part half of this year and year, despite the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing. Nevertheless, the sector. The economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months. However, a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated. Moreover, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Cathy E. Minehan; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Core inflation remains somewhat elevated. Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain those pressures.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • Upgraded the description of economic growth from 'slowed in the first part of this year' to 'moderate during the first half of this year', and added 'despite the ongoing adjustment in the housing sector'.
  • Changed the outlook from 'seems likely to expand at a moderate pace' to 'seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace', emphasizing continuity.
  • Replaced the sentence on core inflation being 'somewhat elevated' with a statement that readings have 'improved modestly in recent months', and added that a sustained moderation has yet to be convincingly demonstrated.
  • Removed the phrase 'Although inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time' and the reference to resource utilization sustaining pressures, but kept the high resource utilization concern in the new sentence.

Implications

The language shift suggests the FOMC sees slightly more balanced risks, acknowledging some improvement in inflation while remaining cautious about the lack of convincing moderation.

The unchanged rate and the emphasis on continued moderate growth imply a patient stance, with future moves still data-dependent on inflation and growth.

Markets might interpret the modestly improved inflation readings as reducing the urgency for near-term tightening, though the persistent concern about resource utilization keeps a hawkish bias.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.