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August 8, 2006 FOMC Statement

Target rate 5.25% unchanged Vote 9–1 · Dissents: Lacker ↑ Tone: Leaning hawkish +0.30

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise keep its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators suggest that economic Economic growth is moderating has moderated from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, months, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting contained inflation expectations and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.

Although Nonetheless, the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6-1/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and Dallas.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC held the federal funds rate target at 5-1/4 percent, after raising it by 25 basis points in June.
  • The statement now says inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, citing contained expectations and cumulative policy effects, a more optimistic tone than before.
  • The sentence about responding to changes in economic prospects as needed was removed.
  • The discount rate action paragraph was omitted; no related Board action is mentioned.
  • Jeffrey M. Lacker dissented, preferring a 25-basis-point increase, marking the first dissent in the voting paragraph.

Implications

The shift to a hold and the added language on inflation moderation suggest the FOMC sees less urgency for further tightening, though it keeps the door open for additional firming if risks materialize.

The removal of the forward-looking response sentence and the dissent signal a more divided stance, with markets likely to interpret the statement as leaning toward a pause in the tightening cycle.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.