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May 10, 2006 FOMC Statement

Target rate 5.00% ▲ raised 0.25 pp Vote 11–0 Tone: Leaning hawkish +0.55

FOMC statement

FOMC statement and Board approval of discount rate requests of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-3/4 5 percent.

Economic growth has been quite strong so far this year. The Committee sees growth as likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.

The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed to keep the address inflation risks to but emphasizes that the attainment extent and timing of both sustainable any such firming will depend importantly on the evolution of the economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. outlook as implied by incoming information. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these support the attainment of its objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 5-3/4 6 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • Raised the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points to 5 percent.
  • Replaced the description of Q4 2005 slowdown and Q1 rebound with a statement that growth has been quite strong so far this year, likely moderating due to housing cooling and lagged effects of rate and energy price increases.
  • Changed the forward guidance from 'some further policy firming may be needed' to 'may yet be needed to address inflation risks,' emphasizing that extent and timing depend on incoming information.
  • Changed the final sentence from 'foster these objectives' to 'support the attainment of its objectives.'
  • Approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6 percent, with the Board of Governors acting unanimously.

Implications

The shift to 'may yet be needed' and the emphasis on data dependence suggest the FOMC is less pre-committed to further hikes, leaving future moves conditional on the outlook.

The mention of housing cooling and lagged effects indicates a more balanced view of growth risks, which markets might interpret as a slightly less hawkish stance than the previous statement.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.