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December 9, 2003 FOMC Statement

Target rate 1.00% unchanged Vote 12–0 Tone: Leaning dovish -0.74

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period confirms that spending output is firming, expanding briskly, and the labor market appears to be stabilizing. Business pricing power and increases improving modestly. Increases in core consumer prices are muted and expected to remain muted. low.

The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, The probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds has diminished in recent months and now appears almost equal to that of a rise in inflation. However, with inflation from its already quite low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, and resource use slack, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low remains the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. Parry.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • Kept the federal funds rate target at 1 percent.
  • Upgraded the economic outlook: output is now described as expanding briskly, and the labor market as improving modestly, versus stabilizing.
  • Softened the inflation risk: the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished and now appears almost equal to that of a rise.
  • Noted core consumer price increases are muted and expected to remain low, adding an expectation for the future.
  • Changed the voting roster: Timothy F. Geithner joined as Vice Chairman, while Jamie B. Stewart, Jr. no longer appears.

Implications

The shift in inflation language suggests the FOMC sees less downside risk to prices, potentially reducing the urgency for future easing.

The stronger growth and labor market descriptions, paired with maintained accommodation, indicate a wait-and-see stance, with policy likely to stay accommodative until inflation or resource use changes more clearly.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.