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January 29, 2003 FOMC Statement

Target rate 1.25% unchanged Vote 12–0 Tone: Leaning dovish -0.38

FOMC statement

FOMC statement

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

Oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses. However, the Committee believes that as those risks lift, as most analysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to an improving economic climate over time.

In these circumstances, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, Olson, and Gary H. Stern. Robert T. Parry.

The Committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC replaced its assessment of incoming indicators and productivity with language citing oil price premiums and geopolitical risks as restraining business spending and hiring.
  • The statement now says that as geopolitical risks lift, the accommodative policy stance and ongoing productivity growth will support an improving economic climate over time.
  • The voting membership changed: J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr., Jack Guynn, Michael H. Moskow, and Robert T. Parry replaced Jerry L. Jordan, Robert D. McTeer, Jr., Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.
  • The rate decision and the balanced-risks language were unchanged.

Implications

The shift from describing a 'soft spot' to highlighting geopolitical risks suggests the FOMC sees the current weakness as externally driven and temporary, with policy support expected to take effect once those risks fade.

The unchanged balanced-risks language indicates no near-term bias toward tightening or easing, but the new emphasis on risks lifting implies a more optimistic forward tilt if conditions improve as anticipated.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.