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March 20, 2001 FOMC Statement

Target rate 5.00% ▼ cut 0.50 pp Vote 10–0 Tone: Clearly dovish -0.98

FOMC statement

FOMC statement and Board discount rate action

For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 5-1/2 5 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 5 4-1/2 percent.

Persistent pressures on profit margins are restraining investment spending and, through declines in equity wealth, consumption. The associated backup in inventories has induced a rapid response in manufacturing output and, with spending having firmed a bit since last year, inventory adjustment appears to be well underway.

Although current developments do not appear to have materially diminished the prospects for long-term growth in productivity, excess productive capacity has emerged recently. The possibility that this excess could continue for some time and the potential for weakness in global economic conditions suggest substantial risks that demand and production could remain soft. In these circumstances, when the economic situation could be evolving rapidly, the Federal Reserve will need to monitor developments closely.

Nonetheless, the The Committee continues to believe that against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.

In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal all twelve Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas and San Francisco. Banks.

Consumer and business confidence has eroded further, exacerbated by rising energy costs that continue to drain consumer purchasing power and press on business profit margins. Partly as a consequence, retail sales and business spending on capital equipment have weakened appreciably. In response, manufacturing production has been cut back sharply, with new technologies appearing to have accelerated the response of production and demand to potential excesses in the stock of inventories and capital equipment.

Taken together, and with inflation contained, these circumstances have called for a rapid and forceful response of monetary policy. The longer-term advances in technology and accompanying gains in productivity, however, exhibit few signs of abating and these gains, along with the lower interest rates, should support growth of the economy over time.

Source

Our summary

What changed

  • The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate target by 50 basis points to 5 percent, and the discount rate by 50 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.
  • The statement replaced language about eroding confidence and energy costs with a focus on profit margin pressures restraining investment and consumption.
  • It now says inventory adjustment appears well underway, with spending having firmed a bit since last year, rather than describing sharp production cutbacks.
  • The statement added that excess productive capacity and potential global weakness pose substantial risks that demand and production could remain soft.
  • The discount rate action was approved by all twelve Reserve Banks, instead of a list of nine specific Banks.

Implications

The shift from describing a rapid and forceful response to noting that inventory adjustment is underway suggests the FOMC sees less urgency for further aggressive easing, though risks remain tilted to weakness.

The added emphasis on monitoring developments closely and global conditions indicates policy may be more data-dependent, with markets likely to interpret the statement as slightly less dovish than the previous one.

Summary generated automatically from the statements. Not investment advice.