November 7–8 · Published November 29, 2018
Statement·Presser·Minutes
Jerome H. Powell
November 7–8, 2018 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes read somewhat more dovish relative to the statement because they reveal that a few participants expressed uncertainty about the timing of rate increases, noted the federal funds rate might be near its neutral level, and highlighted downside risks such as financial tightening, global risks, and slowing in interest-sensitive sectors, whereas the statement's language on "further gradual increases" and balanced risks appears more straightforwardly hawkish.
Our reading compares the minutes of the November 7–8 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Thomas I. Barkin
- Raphael W. Bostic
- Lael Brainard
- Richard H. Clarida
- Mary C. Daly
- Loretta J. Mester
- Jerome H. Powell
- Randal K. Quarles
- John C. Williams
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
1. The Federal Open Market Committee is referenced as the "FOMC" and the "Committee" in these minutes. Return to text
2. Attended through the discussion of developments in financial markets and open market operations. Return to text
3. Attended through the discussion of the long-run monetary policy implementation frameworks. Return to text
4. Attended Wednesday session only. Return to text
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 2 to 2-1/4 percent, rather than raising it 25 basis points.
- The postmeeting statement removed the sentence "the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative" in September; November minutes do not mention this removal.
- Participants noted financial conditions tightened over the intermeeting period, with equity prices declining and borrowing costs increasing.
- The FOMC decided to conduct a review of its strategic framework for monetary policy during 2019, including a research conference in June.
- The November minutes cited elevated risks from leveraged loans and corporate debt, a concern not highlighted in September.
- The unemployment rate was reported as having declined, whereas September minutes said it had stayed low.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.