October 27–28 · Published November 18, 2015
Statement·Presser·Minutes
JYJanet L. YellenOctober 27–28, 2015 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes read consistent with the statement because both documents reflect the same key decisions and outlook: the FOMC agreed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 0-1/4 percent, acknowledged moderate economic growth and improved labor market conditions despite a recent slowdown in job gains, expressed expectations that inflation would rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term, and emphasized that future rate hikes would depend on assessing progress toward maximum employment and inflation objectives, with the statement summarizing these points and the minutes providing detailed discussion and the voting outcome.
Our reading compares the minutes of the October 27–28 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Lael Brainard
- William C. Dudley
- Charles L. Evans
- Stanley Fischer
- Jeffrey M. Lacker ↑ dissented
- Mr. Lacker dissented because he continued to believe that maintaining exceptionally low real interest rates was not appropriate for an economy with persistently strong consumption growth and tightening labor markets. Data received since the September FOMC meeting suggested that the global economic and financial developments of late summer had little effect on the medium-term outlook for U.S. growth and inflation. He remained reasonably confident that inflation would return to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal once temporary disinflationary impulses had passed.
- Dennis P. Lockhart
- Jerome H. Powell
- Daniel K. Tarullo
- John C. Williams
- Janet L. Yellen
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, Charles L. Evans, Stanley Fischer, Dennis P. Lockhart, Jerome H. Powell, Daniel K. Tarullo, and John C. Williams.
Voting against this action: Jeffrey M. Lacker.
Mr. Lacker dissented because he continued to believe that maintaining exceptionally low real interest rates was not appropriate for an economy with persistently strong consumption growth and tightening labor markets. Data received since the September FOMC meeting suggested that the global economic and financial developments of late summer had little effect on the medium-term outlook for U.S. growth and inflation. He remained reasonably confident that inflation would return to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal once temporary disinflationary impulses had passed.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday-Wednesday, December 15-16, 2015. The meeting adjourned at 11:40 a.m. on October 28, 2015.
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- The FOMC changed its postmeeting statement to assess progress toward raising the target range at its next meeting, rather than how long to maintain the current range.
- Most participants in October anticipated conditions for policy normalization could be met by the December meeting, whereas in September many expected them later in the year.
- October minutes noted global financial market volatility had abated and U.S. equity prices largely retraced summer declines, replacing September's concerns about China and dollar appreciation.
- October minutes reported the pace of job gains slowed and unemployment held steady, while September minutes cited ongoing solid payroll gains and falling unemployment.
- October minutes added discussion of options for additional monetary policy accommodation if the economic outlook weakened, absent from September minutes.
- October minutes noted a couple of members expressed concern the new statement language could be misinterpreted as signaling too strongly a December rate increase.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.