September 16–17 · Published October 8, 2015
JYJanet L. YellenSeptember 16–17, 2015 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes are consistent with the statement because both documents reflect the FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent, citing moderate economic expansion, improved labor markets, and below-target inflation, while acknowledging that global developments and low energy prices pose near-term risks but are expected to be transitory, with the FOMC awaiting further labor market improvement and confidence in inflation moving toward 2 percent before raising rates.
Our reading compares the minutes of the September 16–17 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Lael Brainard
- William C. Dudley
- Charles L. Evans
- Stanley Fischer
- Jeffrey M. Lacker ↑ dissented
- Because he believed that maintaining exceptionally low real interest rates was not appropriate for an economy with persistently strong consumption growth and tightening labor markets. He viewed current disinflationary forces as likely to be transitory, and was reasonably confident that inflation would move toward 2 percent. In his view, further delay in removing monetary policy accommodation would represent a risky departure from past patterns of FOMC behavior in response to such economic conditions.
- Dennis P. Lockhart
- Jerome H. Powell
- Daniel K. Tarullo
- John C. Williams
- Janet L. Yellen
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, Charles L. Evans, Stanley Fischer, Dennis P. Lockhart, Jerome H. Powell, Daniel K. Tarullo, and John C. Williams.
Voting against this action: Jeffrey M. Lacker.
Mr. Lacker dissented because he believed that maintaining exceptionally low real interest rates was not appropriate for an economy with persistently strong consumption growth and tightening labor markets. He viewed current disinflationary forces as likely to be transitory, and was reasonably confident that inflation would move toward 2 percent. In his view, further delay in removing monetary policy accommodation would represent a risky departure from past patterns of FOMC behavior in response to such economic conditions.
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday-Wednesday, October 27-28, 2015. The meeting adjourned at 10:55 a.m. on September 17, 2015.
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- One member voted against maintaining the target range, preferring an immediate increase; the July vote was unanimous.
- The September minutes cited China's slowdown and dollar appreciation as new downside risks to growth and inflation.
- The September statement added that global developments may restrain activity and put further downward pressure on inflation.
- The September minutes noted the employment cost index for Q2 was especially low, with no broad-based wage acceleration.
- The September minutes reported market-based inflation compensation moved lower over the intermeeting period.
- The September minutes said most participants expected conditions for policy firming to be met by year-end.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.