March 16 · Published May 6, 2004
Statement·Presser·Minutes
AGAlan GreenspanMarch 16, 2004 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes are consistent with the statement because both documents confirm the decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 1 percent, acknowledge the solid pace of economic expansion, note the slowdown in job losses but lagging hiring, and agree that core inflation is low and expected to remain so. Additionally, both the statement and the minutes reflect the FOMC's view that the risks to sustainable growth are roughly balanced, the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation has diminished to nearly equal that of a rise, and that the FOMC can be patient in removing policy accommodation due to low inflation and resource use slack.
Our reading compares the minutes of the March 16 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Ben S. Bernanke
- Susan S. Bies
- Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
- Timothy F. Geithner
- Edward M. Gramlich
- Alan Greenspan
- Thomas M. Hoenig
- Donald L. Kohn
- Cathy E. Minehan
- Mark W. Olson
- Sandra Pianalto
- William Poole
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Notation vote
By notation vote completed on March 18, 2004, the Committee unanimously approved the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee held on January 27-28, 2004.
Vincent R. Reinhart
Secretary
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- The FOMC removed the "considerable period" phrase from its post-meeting statement, replacing it with "patient in removing its policy accommodation."
- The January meeting's statement change triggered a sharp market reaction, with investors moving up expected tightening dates and Treasury yields jumping.
- M2 rose slightly in January and accelerated markedly in February after four consecutive months of decline.
- The FOMC retained the risk assessment that the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation was almost equal to that of a rise.
- The dollar ended the intermeeting period higher after declining through mid-February and subsequently rebounding.
- The FOMC's vote included new members Hoenig, Minehan, Pianalto, and Poole, replacing Broaddus, Guynn, Moskow, and Parry.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.