January 27–28 · Published March 18, 2004
Statement·Presser·Minutes·Policy
AGAlan GreenspanJanuary 27–28, 2004 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes are consistent with the statement because they confirm that the FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 1 percent, perceived the risks to sustainable growth as roughly equal, judged the probability of an unwelcome fall in inflation to have diminished to nearly equal that of a rise, and agreed to replace the "considerable period" language with a commitment to be "patient" in removing policy accommodation, all of which directly mirror the statement's content.
Our reading compares the minutes of the January 27–28 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Ben S. Bernanke
- Susan S. Bies
- Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.
- Timothy F. Geithner
- Edward M. Gramlich
- Alan Greenspan
- Thomas M. Hoenig
- Donald L. Kohn
- Cathy E. Minehan
- Mark W. Olson
- Sandra Pianalto
- William Poole
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Footnotes
1. Attended Wednesday's session only. Return to text
2. Attended portion of meeting relating to the Committee's review of the economic outlook. Return to text
3.Secretary’s note: Advice subsequently was received that the selection of Mr. Kos as Manager was satisfactory to the board of directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Return to text
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- The FOMC replaced the "considerable period" language with "patient" in its policy statement.
- The FOMC deleted the sentence on risks to growth and inflation being roughly equal from its directive.
- The FOMC noted futures rates for the second half of 2004 rose a few basis points after the December meeting.
- The FOMC reported that December employment growth was surprisingly modest, pushing expected tightening to the fall.
- The FOMC's December 2004 GDP growth forecast central tendency was 4-1/2 to 5 percent, unchanged from October.
- The FOMC's unemployment rate projection for Q4 2004 remained 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.