June 18, 2025
Statement·Presser·Minutes·Policy
Jerome H. Powell
June 18, 2025 FOMC Press Conference
- The chair said the median FOMC participant projects GDP growth of 1.4 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year, slower than the March projections.
- The chair said the median projection for the unemployment rate is 4.5 percent at the end of this year and next, a bit higher than projected in March.
- The chair said the median projection for total PCE inflation is 3 percent this year, falling to 2.4 percent in 2026 and 2.1 percent in 2027.
- The chair said the median projection for the federal funds rate is 3.9 percent at the end of this year, 3.6 percent at the end of next year, and 3.4 percent at the end of 2027.
- The chair said the FOMC intends to wrap up modifications to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy by late summer as part of its five-year framework review.
From the opening statement
Press conference
CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is at or near maximum employment. Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2 percent longer- run objective.
In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments. I’ll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Following growth of 2.5 percent last year, GDP was reported to have edged down in the first quarter, reflecting swings in net exports that were driven by businesses bringing in imports ahead of potential tariffs. This unusual swing has complicated GDP measurement. Private domestic final purchases, or PDFP, as we call them—which excludes net exports, inventory investment, and government spending—grew at a solid 2.5 percent rate. Within PDFP, growth of consumer spending moderated, while investment in equipment and intangibles rebounded from weakness in the fourth quarter. Surveys of households and businesses, however, report a decline in sentiment over recent months and elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook, largely reflecting trade policy concerns. It remains to be seen how these developments might affect future spending and investment. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.4 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year—somewhat slower than projected in March.