June 16–17, 2026 FOMC Minutes

Our reading

The minutes read somewhat more hawkish relative to the statement because they reveal that, despite the unanimous vote to hold rates steady, a majority of participants discussed scenarios in which inflation remains elevated and "some policy firming would likely be warranted," with many participants assessing that the appropriate federal funds rate would be *above* the current target range by year-end—whereas the statement itself only notes that inflation is "elevated" and that the FOMC "will deliver price stability," without explicitly flagging the upside risks or the possibility of future hikes.

FOMC minutes

Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.

Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability."

Voting for this action: Kevin Warsh, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Beth M. Hammack, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan, Anna Paulson, Jerome H. Powell, and Christopher J. Waller.

Voting against this action: None