September 16–17 · Published October 8, 2025
Jerome H. Powell
September 16–17, 2025 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
The minutes are consistent with the statement because they detail the same economic assessment—moderated growth, slowed job gains, an edging-up unemployment rate, and elevated inflation—and confirm the FOMC's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent, driven by a shift in the balance of risks toward increased downside risks to employment.
Our reading compares the minutes of the September 16–17 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Michael S. Barr
- Michelle W. Bowman
- Susan M. Collins
- Lisa D. Cook
- Austan D. Goolsbee
- Philip N. Jefferson
- Stephen I. Miran ↓ dissented
- Governor Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting in light of further softening in the labor market over the first half of the year and underlying inflation that in his view was meaningfully closer to 2 percent than was apparent in the data. Governor Miran also expressed the view that additional policy easing was also appropriate to reflect that the neutral rate of interest had fallen due to factors such as increased tariff revenues that had raised net national savings and changes in immigration policy that had reduced population growth.
- Alberto G. Musalem
- Jerome H. Powell
- Jeffrey R. Schmid
- Christopher J. Waller
- John C. Williams
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
Voting against this action: Stephen I. Miran.
Governor Miran preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting in light of further softening in the labor market over the first half of the year and underlying inflation that in his view was meaningfully closer to 2 percent than was apparent in the data. Governor Miran also expressed the view that additional policy easing was also appropriate to reflect that the neutral rate of interest had fallen due to factors such as increased tariff revenues that had raised net national savings and changes in immigration policy that had reduced population growth.
Consistent with the Committee's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 4 to 4-1/4 percent, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted to lower the interest rate paid on reserve balances to 4.15 percent, effective September 18, 2025. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted to approve a 1/4 percentage point decrease in the primary credit rate to 4.25 percent, effective September 18, 2025.2
It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, October 28–29, 2025. The meeting adjourned at 10:10 a.m. on September 17, 2025.
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- The target range for the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 4 to 4-1/4 percent.
- The postmeeting statement no longer characterizes labor market conditions as solid, instead noting job gains slowed and unemployment edged up.
- The statement added that downside risks to employment have risen.
- The statement added that inflation has moved up.
- The dissenting vote changed from two members preferring a 25 basis point cut to one member preferring a 50 basis point cut.
- The interest rate on reserve balances was lowered to 4.15 percent, and the primary credit rate to 4.25 percent.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.