October 28–29 · Published November 19, 2014
Statement·Presser·Minutes
JYJanet L. YellenOctober 28–29, 2014 FOMC Minutes
Our reading
Based on the minutes, the discussion is consistent with the statement because the minutes reflect the same key economic assessments and policy decisions, including the moderate economic expansion, improving labor market, concluding the asset purchase program, and the data-dependent forward guidance on the federal funds rate, while also detailing the nuanced debates and individual dissents that led to the final unanimous (with one dissent) policy action.
Our reading compares the minutes of the October 28–29 FOMC meeting with the FOMC statement issued at the end of that meeting, three weeks before the minutes were published.
Vote
- Lael Brainard
- William C. Dudley
- Stanley Fischer
- Richard W. Fisher
- Narayana Kocherlakota ↓ dissented
- Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because he believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until projected inflation one to two years ahead has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current pace. Mr. Kocherlakota noted that when the Committee first reduced its asset purchases in December 2013, it said in the post-meeting statement that it would be monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation was moving back toward its objective over the medium term; Mr. Kocherlakota indicated he saw no such evidence.
- Loretta J. Mester
- Charles I. Plosser
- Jerome H. Powell
- Daniel K. Tarullo
- Janet L. Yellen
From the minutes
FOMC minutes
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run."
Voting for this action: Janet L. Yellen, William C. Dudley, Lael Brainard, Stanley Fischer, Richard W. Fisher, Loretta J. Mester, Charles I. Plosser, Jerome H. Powell, and Daniel K. Tarullo.
Voting against this action: Narayana Kocherlakota.
Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because he believed that, in light of continued sluggishness in the inflation outlook and the recent slide in market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the Committee should commit to maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at least until projected inflation one to two years ahead has returned to 2 percent and should continue the asset purchase program at its current pace. Mr. Kocherlakota noted that when the Committee first reduced its asset purchases in December 2013, it said in the post-meeting statement that it would be monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation was moving back toward its objective over the medium term; Mr. Kocherlakota indicated he saw no such evidence.
What changed from the previous meeting’s minutes
- Asset purchase program concluded at end of October instead of reduced further.
- Dissent changed from Fisher and Plosser to Kocherlakota alone.
- Added language that liftoff timing depends on faster or slower progress data.
- Market-based inflation compensation measures declined over intermeeting period.
- Forward guidance retained "considerable time" phrase despite some preference to remove it.
Summary generated automatically from the two documents.