June 17, 1958 FOMC Minutes: Full Text
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington on Tuesday, June 17, 1958, at 9:30 a.m. PRESENT: Mr. Martin, Chairman Mr. Hayes, Vice Chairman Mr. Fulton Mr. Irons Mr. Leach Mr. Mangels Mr. Mills Mr. Robertson Mr. Szymczak Messrs. Erickson, Allen, Johns, and Deming, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Messrs. Bopp, Bryan, and Leedy, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Kansas City, respectively Mr. Thurston, Assistant Secretary Mr. Hackley, General Counsel Mr. Thomas, Economist Messrs. Daane, Marget, Walker, and Young, Associate Economists Mr. Rouse, Manager, System Open Market Account Mr. Carpenter, Secretary, Board of Governors Mr. Kenyon, Assistant Secretary, Board of Governors Mr. Koch, Associate Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Mr. Jones, Chief, Consumer Credit and Finances Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Mr. Keir, Economist, Government Finance Section, of Research and Statistics, Board Division of Governors Mr. Stone, Manager, Securities Department, Reserve Bank of New York Federal Messrs. Ellis, Mitchell, Tow, and O'Kane, Vice of the Federal Reserve Banks of Presidents City, and San Chicago, Kansas Boston,
Francisco, respectively; Messrs. Larkin and Coombs, Assistant Vice Presidents of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Messrs. Balles and Einzig, Assistant Vice Presi dents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and San Francisco, respectively; Mr. Parsons, Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis; and Messrs. Anderson and Atkinson, Economic Advisers, Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and Atlanta, respectively Upon motion duly made and seconded, and by unanimous vote, the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Com mittee held on May 27, 1958, were approved. Before this meeting there had been distributed to the members of the Committee a report prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reviewing market developments and open market operations since February 26, 1958, and dealing in detail with operations during the period May 27 through June 11, 1958, along with a supplemental report covering commitments executed June 12 through June 16, 1958. Copies of both reports have been placed in the files of the Federal Open Market Committee. In comments supplementing the reports which had been dis tributed, Mr. Larkin drew attention to the magnitude of operations in the System Open Market Account since the last meeting of the Committee. During that period the Account purchased approximately was more than the Management of Treasury bills, which $600 million and perhaps more than the time of the last meeting had envisioned at
the Committee had envisioned. Despite these operations, however, Treasury bill rates had risen gradually and the average rate at yesterday's auction was .95. Furthermore, the New York city banks had encountered some reserve shortages, primarily because of the substantial increase in their loans to Government securities dealers. In the two weeks which ended June 11, these loans increased more than $700 million, and at the same time dealer holdings of Government securities increased by an even larger amount. This reflected dealer absorption of securities during the Treasury financing and dealer absorption of securities sold by corporations raising cash to meet their June 15 tax liabilities. Mr. Larkin said that although the Treasury's refunding opera tion was well received by the market, the sheer weight of exchanges new 2-5/8 per cent bonds had caused some uneasiness toward into the that issue. to a question by Mr. Leach, Mr. Larkin recalled In response meeting there was discussion of the that at the last Committee concern expressed that per movement into rights, with speculative on the market in the these holdings might be dumped haps some of open and thus bring pressure Treasury's books were period when the and it might be assumed did not happen, however, on the market. That exchanged for the holdings had been most of the speculative that the magnitude of fact, together with cent bonds. This 2-5/8 per with regard to the market place to caution in exchange, had led the
these new securities, but the market nevertheless performed quite well quotationwise until yesterday, when some pressures appeared for the liquidation of speculative holdings. This depressed prices on the 2-5/8s and also on the new 3-1/ per cent bonds. In general, the market was cautious, and it was now facing a distribution problem. Thereupon, upon motion duly made and seconded, and by unanimous vote, the open market transactions during the period May 27 through June 16, 1958, were approved, ratified, and confirmed. In supplementation of the staff memorandum distributed under date of June 13, 1958, Mr. Young made the following statement on the economic situation: The stock market is still saying, with even stronger emphasis, that economic recovery, possibly inflationary recovery, is either under way or just around the corner. The further economic information available for this meet ing is confirming our report at the last meeting that bottoming out of recession is in fact occurring. While the information is generally on the encouraging side, some of it is black and is a counterweight to the white. Perhaps the best approach for today's report is to sift from the blacker information. On the white the whiter side, we have these items: (1) A one point rise in the index of industrial production in May, mainly reflecting a rise in durable information points to a further goods output. Current rise in the index for June. Electric power output is also up in June, and freight car loadings are showing a quite dramatic rise. in housing construction activity in May (2) Pickup a developing volume of unit start rate, and to a million for both new and used houses that financing activity would suggest builder and lender expectations of a very active market ahead.
(3) Further large inventory decline in April, carrying inventory liquidation one more step closer to the point where even reduction in inventory liquidation may function as a stimulating factor. (4) Further slackening in the pace of decline in manu facturers' sales and, in May, a rise at durable goods manu facturers in new orders. (5) Strengthening of the labor market in May and exten sion of labor market improvement into June. (6) Further rise in personal income in May--for the third month in succession, with more rise in June now indicated. (7) Additional strength in retail trade, particularly at nondurable goods stores. While sales of autos and other durable goods are running well below a year ago, sales of autos have improved recently and the decline in sales of other durables has slackened. At department stores, sales in June are holding up well. (8) Further gain in agricultural income and a bright prospect for crops and farm income in the months ahead. (9) Strengthening of prices in primary metal markets, especially of copper and steel scrap. While special factors, such as prospective new governmental stockpiling, have been influences in the turn-up in copper, inventory supplies of primary metals are now such as to make these markets highly on the upside to both increases in demand and sensitive decreases in supply. (10) Capital market activity continues at a high level credit expansion has now proceeded for four months and bank rate of 1 per cent. Active cash balances have at the monthly months at the most rapid rate since been rising over these account should be taken of the resiliency (11) Lastly, in holding up in the by European industrial activity shown in U. S. activity and in the face of significant contraction on the part of raw material of reduced import capacity face supplying areas. black information as however, there is As we suggested, blacker side, we can list: well as white. On the release of new plant (1) The Department of Commerce-SEC that such spend estimates, indicating and equipment spending reports and that spending more than earlier ing had declined scaled down. is to be further the rest of 1958 during the value of con information on (2) The newly-revised decline from December showing a larger struction activity, with declines disclosed earlier, May than had been through value of private residential, industrial, continuing in the from April to May. and public construction
(3) The speculative character of the recent bulge in steel activity, with warehouse demand especially heavy, according to trade reports, in anticipation of a $5 a ton rise in the steel prices on July 1. (4) The continued sluggishness of the new automobile market, the continuing threat of major work stoppage in this industry, and the not too hopeful reports on new model design for 1959 cars. (5) The further decline in consumer instalment credit, which, though diminishing in amount, is still operating as a contractive influence on consumer spending. (6) The failure of prices for fabricated industrial commodities to show response to contracted demand. (7) The possible vulnerability of the current level of stock prices in view of the sharp rise in customer credit that has accompanied the recent market advance. (8) The failure of the Canadian economy, which led the U. S. economy in recession, to show bounce-back from its re cession bottom. (9) The indications from very recent European informa tion that British and Continental economic activity may be weakening, with the next move downward. And finally: undercurrent of concern about the future role (10) The of gold that seems to be present in international markets. We infer from this inventory of the hopeful and caution ary items of intelligence now at hand that the haze obscuring not suddenly lifted, and that it is the better the outlook has part of wisdom not to conclude as yet that a recovery pattern has definitely taken form. On the other hand, one cannot deny that an accelerating recovery movement is now the possibility shaping up. Mr. Thomas made the following statement on financial develop ments: three or four weeks, demands on capital mar In the past bond offering for cash, have been kets, including the Treasury have been met from a continued heavy. Some of these demands holdings of securities and loans substantial expansion in bank have been absorbed by increases on securities. Bank reserves and currency and a continued gold outflow, in required reserves rather large but selective have been supplied by and reserves free reserves of securities. On balance System purchases of declined and have been at a lower level than they member banks were in May.
Notwithstanding the heavy demands in capital markets and the decline in free reserves, the money market con tinued relatively easy until the past week, when the customary large-scale last-half-of-June financial turnover began to be felt. Long-term rates showed little change and short-term rates during most of the period continued at very low levels reached in the latter part of May. Treasury financing operations were effected with remark ably slight repercussions in the market, but the real effect may be just beginning with settlement yesterday for the com mitments made. Heretofore the principal tangible effect has been in dealers' purchases of maturing issues and commitments for purchases and sales of when-issued securities. These operations resulted in considerable churning of funds in the market, but until the past week dealers had little difficulty in covering their financial needs by borrowing temporary liquid funds. These funds are now being needed to meet mid June obligations for taxes, dividends, and other payments, and other pressures are beginning to appear in the market. Dealers' committed positions in securities and borrowings are at record levels and a large portion of financing needs will have to be obtained from the banking system in the next two weeks. Business payments to the Treasury and for other purposes may also necessitate a considerable amount of busi ness borrowing at banks. In the absence of maturing tax securities to pay off, the cash balance will increase sharply in the next ten Treasury's of over $9 billion. The resulting rise days to a high figure in deposits will increase bank reserve needs. The Treasury sharply in subsequent weeks, but balances will be drawn down that they are adequate to cover cash needs it is possible An early increase of $100 million in the weekly until October. could assure sufficient funds bill offering probably Treasury cash borrowing needs, however, will until that time. Treasury quarter--probably about be very heavy in the October-December $6 billion. by corporations have continued New issues of securities than a year ago. In the large in June, though less moderately expected to total about corporate issues are second quarter, million less than last or a little over $400 $2.7 billion, offerings of long-term companies, whose public year. Finance account for about recently been negligible, securities have corporations have Issues of industrial half of this drop. have continued by utility companies while offerings declined, State and local government than a year ago. somewhat larger
issues have been somewhat less in June than in April and May, but the quarterly total was larger than in the same period of other recent years. Yields on long-term securities--both new and outstanding issues--have continued relatively firm, notwithstanding the Treasury bond offering. Distribution of some of the new issues has been rather slow, but perhaps no more than should be expected in view of the demands on the capital market. Total loans and investments of banks in leading cities, as indicated by partial figures for June 11, increased by about $1.7 billion in the three weeks ending on that date, compared with an increase of $1.1 billion in the same period last year, which included payment for a new Treasury issue. The larger increase this year reflected principally increases in loans to dealers in securities and in holdings of securi ties other than those of the U. S. Government. Bank holdings of Government securities have continued to increase. Business loans increased only moderately in the week of June 11, following declines in the two previous weeks, whereas last year they increased considerably in the first two weeks of June. As previously mentioned, further large increases in borrowing are to be expected this week and perhaps business next. at city banks continued to increase in Demand deposits more than last year, following a less than June somewhat in May. It is estimated that demand seasonal contraction at all banks showed a seasonally ad deposits and currency increase of about $500 million in May, to a figure justed than a year ago. U. S. Government nearly $1 billion larger in recent weeks, but as deposits have declined seasonally increase sharply this week. Time mentioned will begin to at a rapid pace at com have continued to increase deposits at mutual savings banks. mercial banks and moderately four months of the year indicate Estimates for the first their holdings of Govern nonbank holders have reduced that and certificates, in particularly bills ment securities, in the same period increase in total holdings contrast to an the growth in liquidity This would indicate that last year. in bank deposits. has been predominantly risen somewhat in the past money rates have Short-term May to a relatively low a decline during two weeks, following in free reserves from shift accompanied a decline level. This tone of the New $4OO million. The $500 million to around over relatively easier at first seemed money market, however, York largely the distribu in May. This reflected than it had been ability of securities and also the among banks tion of reserves
dealers to obtain financing from nonbank sources. This atmosphere has changed, however, in the past week. Fed eral funds rates have been closer to the discount rate and yields on Treasury bills, which declined to about 5/8 per cent, have approached the 1 per cent level. Reserves have been absorbed in recent weeks by greater than seasonal increases in required reserves and in currency and by a further, though slackening, outflow of gold. In the meantime reserves have been supplied by System open market operations, aggregating around $900 million in the past four weeks. An abundant supply of reserves will be needed during the next two or three weeks to meet the heavy liquidity needs of this period. Recent System operations together with the usual mid-month float increase, may be adequate to cover needs this week and next. Reserve needs in the subsequent two weeks will be increased by the holiday currency demand, as well as by the usual end-of-month decline in float, and they may be further enlarged by a continued increase in required reserves, if there is heavy borrowing at banks to cover tax and other payments at the time. This is an uncertain element. In any event, in the absence of further System operations free reserves are likely to continue during July and most of August and September at below $400 million. On the basis of usual seasonal factors they will decline further in the last quarter of the year. The question of policy is how and when these reserves should be supplied. System policies and the response of the banks to those policies have resulted in bank credit expansion during the past four or five months at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 12 per cent and sharp short-term rates to exceedingly low levels. declines in of this credit has directly or indirectly financed Much long-term commitments. Some of it has evidently been or at least is believed to be of a temporary speculative of the changed tenor of current business nature. In view indicated by Mr. Young's review, the major statistics, is whether there should policy question to be determined vigorous policy of ease. be some moderation of the recent of his views on the following statement Mr. Hayes presented the business outlook and credit policy: last three weeks have Business statistics in the that the low encouraging, suggesting been generally
point of the recession may be close at hand, although it is not clear that it has already been reached--and there is certainly no evidence yet pointing to any substantial recovery during the remainder of 1958. High levels of consumer and Government demands seem now to be roughly offsetting recessionary forces generated in the invest ment area of the economy. Perhaps the most obscure element in the outlook is the probable trend of aggregate inventories. The present rate of liquidation is almost certainly less than the steep rate of the first four months of the year, and the speed of liquidation should drop further in coming months; but stock-sales ratios, even after some decline in April, are still high, and the process of inventory correction may still take some time. The direction of consumer spending, as well as price developments, particularly in the area of raw materials, will doubtless be a crucial influence on inventory trends. Well-sustained personal income and consumer spending have been major stabilizing factors to date. Aided by high farm income, large transfer payments, and the first increase in wage and salary payments since last August, personal income rose in May to a level less than 1 per cent below that of August. Consumer cash outlays, i.e., con sumption expenditures less changes in consumer credit, have increased in each quarter throughout the recession. However, the future trend of consumer spending is still a major question mark. The latest SEC-Commerce figures on plant and equipment expenditures show a considerably sharper than expected drop in the first quarter, suggesting that there is greater flexibility in capital expenditure plans than had been generally thought. We can, however, find encouragement in the projection of a much slower rate of decline--only about $1 billion (annual rate)--in each of the ensuing three quarters. Declines of this magnitude could of course be offset by relatively modest gains in consumer spending or in public expenditures. Although actual defense spending tendency, a gradual but sub has so far shown no upward over the next year; and this stantial rise is expected recent increases in Federal pay factor, together with extension of unemployment benefit payments, scales, and the and rising Government deficit. points to a substantial favorable developments have been Among recent rather building starts and in new some improvement in residential pickup in steel output and a leveling orders, a continued
of industrial production as a whole. However, the better level of housing starts, which is especially marked in apartment units, may reflect greater speculative building activity rather than a genuine improvement in underlying demand. The upward trend in the steel industry may be attributable in large part to expectations of higher prices at the end of this month, and in part to a rebuilding of seriously depleted inventories. It seems questionable whether much stress should be laid on the modest drop in unemployment in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, since unemployment is likely to remain at a relatively high level for many months unless production rises sharply, I believe probabilities still favor a slow recovery rather than a sharp and rapid one. The price outlook is more encouraging than at any time in the last few years. Farm prices are now declining at last, and the general wholesale price index seems likely to hold steady or even to move lower over the rest of the year, with the consumer price index perhaps showing a similar trend after some months' lag. As for Treasury finance, we can probably assume with safety that the Treasury will not be in the market again for new money until around the middle of August. (Our estimates indicate that their needs will come sooner than Mr. Thomas' forecast of October.) But the Treasury will be faced with another substantial refunding--the August 1 maturity, probably combined with the September 15 maturities. In spite of the mildly improved business outlook, I think the present is emphatically not the time for backing away from our policy of outright monetary ease or for creating any public impression that we may be backing away from it. The policy we have been following in recent weeks should be continued until there are much clearer signs of imminent recovery. I think we should be gratified by the extent to which banks and others have restored some of the liquidity lost during the years of credit restraint. As usual, it is hard to set policy in terms of any specific Although a level of about $500 million free reserve figure. satisfactory as any, I would prefer to see the seems as give greater weight to the feel of the money and Manager the favorable reception of the capital markets. Despite financing operations, I think we must Treasury's recent to the capital markets to give close attention continue as possible for new to assure as receptive an atmosphere issues. While I would see no corporate and municipal
objection to our letting free reserves fall appreciably below $500 million at times when the market feels easy and when the banks in the money centers are well supplied with reserves, I would be fearful of going much below that level--and would, in fact, welcome appreciably higher figures--during periods when the money centers feel tight. To my mind the need for substantial additional re serves to take care of holiday currency requirements, coupled with the prospect of rising seasonal reserve needs in August and later months, points to an opportunity in the very near future for the System to take an addi tional step toward its long-term objective of attaining somewhat lower levels of reserve requirements. If such a move is made, however, it would be highly desirable that any accompanying publicity stress the point that it is designed to meet these seasonal and long-term needs and should not be looked upon as a sign of increased appre hension on the part of the System as to the business outlook. As for whether the discount rate should be reduced further, I believe this is a relatively unimportant ques time. A case might be made for lowering the tion at this to 1-1/2 per cent, chiefly to achieve a lower rate, say which to effect decisive increases when strong level from restraint are once again called for. signals of credit some modest reduction as a move to We could also justify the rate down to the "rock "clear the air" by bringing in the last two recessions and by bottom" figure reached spread between the discount the unusually wide reducing market rates. However, this last rate and short-term argument when borrowing by banks is not a very weighty I would be somewhat reluctant such a low level, and is at technical reasons when no change the rate mainly for to policy is needed. It is even additional signal of credit be misconstrued by the that a rate cut might conceivable the System is more worried as an indication that market are. This could have outlook than we actually over the time when business develop results just at a unfortunate greater optimism some basis for somewhat ments are giving may be contended that Against this it or less pessimism. reduction to discounted a further the market has already prefer to leave I think I would extent. On balance some if there unchanged, especially per cent rate the 1-3/4 may be reduced that reserve requirements is any likelihood confront the no reason to since I see in the near future, of a policy signal in the direction public with a double under present conditions. of greater ease
Mr. Johns said he agreed with Mr. Hayes that this was not the time to back away from the present policy of monetary ease or to give the public appearance of doing so. At the last Committee meeting, he said, it was his understanding of the majority view that the Desk would not be expected to concentrate too much upon the statistic of free reserves. Rather, the Desk would be expected to rely to a considerable extent on the feel of the market, and in doing so the Account Management might find it appropriate to permit the free reserve figure to drift somewhat lower than the target. He now found himself in the position of regretting that the feel of not so sensitive as to prevent in the past week an the market was appearance of tightening, or at least less ease. He wished that not occurred, although he realized that perhaps it could this had have been prevented. For the next three weeks, he not reasonably that this trend could be arrested and that operations would hope make it clear that the posture of the System in the Account might In his view there should be no continued to be one of ease. of less ease, and policy in the direction alteration of current in the direction of restraint. certainly not meeting he had arguedthat at the last Mr. Johns recalled there were good reasons clearly in the minority--that and he was rate. Although he still reduction in the discount for a further made in favor of could be Mr. Hayes that arguments agreed with
a reduction in the rate, he did not wish to reiterate the argument he made at the last meeting. In spite of the economic information that had become available in the last three weeks which was con sidered by many to be of an encouraging nature and to indicate a bottoming out of recession, it seemed reasonable to him to anticipate that in the next few weeks or months there might be deterioration in some of the indices. In the forthcoming summer months, he would not be surprised if, for example, great strength failed to appear in the index of industrial production, and employment and unemployment statistics likewise might give the appearance of deterioration. The that there might be public misunderstanding if set fear he had was which were essentially of a seasonal character. If backs occurred to be in a position to counteract so, it might be more important the time than to anticipate them by doing any such developments at something now. like Mr. Hayes, he would went on to say that, Mr. Johns which would almost of the additional reserves prefer to see some through a further the coming weeks supplied be needed in surely again to emphasize He wished in reserve requirements. reduction meeting that it would at the last Committee the view he expressed of that by a reduction at least part desirable to accomplish be time deposits. requirements against in reserve the Atlanta Board meeting of that at the Mr. Bryan said of the branch at which representatives last Friday, of Directors
boards were present, the economic discussion was led by the directors rather than the staff and the underlying tone of the reports made by directors representing various lines of business and industry was distinctly more optimistic than it had been. The only sour notes came from the textile industry, where dis couragement seemed to be endemic, and from rice milling, a specialized agricultural industry hardly representative of the general agricultural picture. Mr. Bryan went on to say that statistics for the district seemed to be behaving quite well, rather better than he reported at the last meeting of the Committee. Some of the figures still were moving down but others showed signs of bottoming out and the district did seem to be performing better than the national averages. For the first time, therefore, he was encouraged, but he felt there could be some setbacks to the present atmosphere of confidence, which might be a little premature. As to policy, Mr. Bryan said he realized that if the System and especially if the degree of a policy of active ease, continued into difficulty in the event be increased, it might get ease should in boom proportions. However, he that recovery should take hold he would like to continue a development and did not foresee such by the fact that ease. He was impressed present policy of the a substantial degree banks had recovered although the commercial
of liquidity as the result of System policy, they would nevertheless go into the next period of recovery with liquidity ratios which were unfavorable when contrasted with those prevailing at the time of the previous recovery movement. This meant that the probabilities of an explosive loan expansion such as occurred in 1955 and 1956 were con siderably reduced. Mr. Bopp said that he could generalize for the Third District fairly accurately by saying that although there had been some improve ment, conditions in the district were still significantly below a year ago. The evidence of a bottoming out of recession, as indicated in the staff memorandum, was encouraging, but in his opinion the situation called for continuing the policy of monetary ease. Since the Treasury had issued a long-term bond and long-term yields were relatively firm, he would not do anything in the short-term market which might be subject to misinterpretation. On balance he would be disposed to recommend a reduction in the discount rate of at least 1/4 per cent as a clear signal to the market that the policy of ease was being continued. Also, since it appeared that in the future additional reserves would be required, he relatively near a reduction of reserve requirements against time would favor change the existing policy directive. deposits. He would not Mr. Fulton said that the Fourth District continued to lag that statistics for the district the rest of the nation and behind
failed to show improvement. The recent increase in the steel rate was temporary in nature, being attributable largely to orders in anticipation of a rise in the price of steel, which seemed imminent come the first of July. Despite the fact that there was some volume of orders coming in from small steel users whose inventories had been reduced to low levels, steel men expected the month of July to be the worst month of the whole year. While they did expect some pickup in August, with initial orders for steel for the new model automobiles, it appeared that the automobile manufacturers were going to play the situation close to the vest. Mr. Fulton then commented on the reasons for a recent reduc tion of $2 a ton by companies furnishing steel to Detroit. His explanation indicated that this local situation had no bearing on the general picture with respect to the price of steel, and it continued to be the expectation, he said, that the price of steel would go up. By and large, the outlook was for a continued low level of production and that, along with low levels in the metal industry, would reflect itself in increasing unemployment. working had been added to the cities in the Fourth District Additional areas, and in those areas the situation category of distressed labor on food sales, including the selection of foods. had had some effect drop in total sales from last year, the While there had not been a store sales for the had diminished. Department rate of increase on the average from last year, district were down about 5 per cent
against a drop nationally of about 2 per cent, and automobile sales were down sharply in the Cleveland and Cincinnati areas. Bank loans were moving down, but to some extent that might be attributed to a desire on the part of the banks to obtain the degree of liquidity which was lost some time ago. No indication of softness was seen yet in published prices, and some indication of price maintenance might be found in the fact that two recent wage negotiations had culminated in new contracts calling for wage increases of approxi mately 5 and 7 per cent, respectively. Mr. Fulton expressed the view that the present degree of ease was appropriate to the situation and said that most assuredly he would not want any indication of tightness to develop in the market. In his opinion the Desk had done a good job since the last meeting in the light of the conditions surrounding the Treasury financing, and he would like to see the present degree of ease maintained. He subscribed fully to the thinking that a reduction in reserve requirements to supply reserve needs in the immediate future would be quite appropriate, provided the action was ac companied by an explanation of the reasons therefor, but he would not touch the discount rate at this time. He felt that there was deal of confidence on the part of busi not at this time a great nesses or individuals that the recession had hit bottom. Despite bottom had been reached and of some people that a the thinking was imminent, he did not believe that any that a turn-around
immediate developments in that direction would be of such a magnitude as to indicate that recovery was here and that the System should tighten its reins. Mr. Robertson said that to him the economic report indi cated very clearly a leveling out or possibly an upward movement. Although the System ought to try very carefully to catch the turn before inflationary forces emerge, he did not feel that this was the right time to start tightening. Rather, this was a time to sit still and watch carefully, making sure that no indication was given of any tightening or, on the other hand, any easing. He would refrain from any action on reserve requirements or the dis count rate and would seek a level of free reserves of about S4OO million, with leeway on either side to account for the tone of While this was not the time for action, it was, the market. however, a time for thinking. It might be necessary, for example, requirements in view of the volume of to do something about margin he commented on the fact that credit going into the stock market; to the earnings records stock prices have risen disproportionately be called for at this Although no action might of corporations. be watched carefully. that situation should time, maintain as even said, he would In summary, Mr. Robertson the next three weeks. as possible for a position meeting would focus comments at this said that his Mr. Mills In that connection, of credit policy. mechanical functioning upon the
until the present digestive period of Treasury financing was over, along with the tax payment period, he believed that it would be necessary for the Manager of the Account to give whatever assistance might be required to the market to allay any suspicion of a change in the direction of System policy. However, when that short period was past it would seem appropriate to implement the line of reason ing expressed by Mr. Thomas which would call for moderating the degree of aggressiveness with which reserves had been supplied through the commercial banking system over the past months. To that end he would propose a line of policy such as indicated in the following statement: 1. Continuing to believe that System policy, in supplying reserves in recent weeks, has been overgenerous and that as 2. the objective was reached and the economic purpose achieved some time ago of raising the money supply, there is 3. a distinct risk that any further heavy injections seeking to maintain a positive level of free of reserves reserves in the $500-million range would abet the specula tive factors in the U. S. Government securities market that are already in evidence, and 4. would have the more serious effect of underwriting a new inflation by creating excessive liquidity, in the process of which would be given the existing rigidities in 5. support that stand in the way of sought the wage-price structure after economic adjustments. Therefore, under these circumstances, be taken of the interval before 6. advantage should operation to allow natural factors a new Treasury financing to have free play, to the affecting the supply of reserves end that credit avail will set adequate 7. System policy such reserves as its objective and only supply ability as which would mean that are necessary for that purpose,
8. rather wide fluctuations in the prices of intermediate- and long-term U. S. Government securities should not be a cause of concern or a reason for specific System action, except in the unlikely case of a disorderly market, but 9. rather should be regarded as a reflection of the working of free market forces that would presumably eliminate some of the speculative elements now in the market. 10. The conduct of a System policy looking to these objectives would contemplate that the Manager of the System Open Market Account would be guided largely by the feel of the market when supplying reserves, rather than any set level of positive free reserves as a goal. 11. In keeping with this policy, another reduction in reserve requirements would not be made unless further substantial withdrawals of gold or a pattern of downward movements in the supply of reserves to levels as low as those that have been projected for near-by weeks should make that action necessary. In further comments, Mr. Mills said he believed there should of discounts at the Federal Reserve Banks be no concern if the level that would indicate that some of the should rise, because seemingly out of the market as the banks excessive reserves would be squeezed to a more realistic scheme of reserve adjusted their positions should be made in the believe that any change supplies. He did not rate at the present tie. discount on balance there was no evidence Mr. Leach said that although improvement in slight evidence of further decline and only of further a definite optimistic there was nevertheless the Fifth District, prevalence. The complex by reason of its attitude that was striking made it difficult to get a diversification of the textile industry
clear and comprehensive picture of the current situation, but he did not sense in recent developments any material changes for better or worse. At the joint meeting of the Bank's directors last week, two of the directors expressed the opinion that although many marginal producers had gone out of business, still others would have to go before much fundamental improvement in textiles could be achieved. Reports from a number of residential builders and lenders indicated a sharp upturn in building activity last month that had continued this month. The most common rate on conventional loans now ranged between 5-l/4 and 5-1/2 per cent, with the average on the low side, and many prime mortgage loans were being made as low building activity had strengthened the as 5 per cent. Increased demand for lumber and firmed prices, and retail lumber yards ap peared to be more willing to stock up than they had been. The West had brightened slightly since the last Committee Virginia picture bituminous coal had increased a little even meetirg. Production of indications of leveling off, exports, which had been giving though insured unemployment showed a de declined. The latest report on of which was due to expiration of unemployment cline, 18 per cent benefit rights. opinion was expressed by Leach went on to say that the Mr. last week that the at the joint meeting several of the directors minus signs. Many things consisted solely of recession had not business had received and improved in to be reviewed long needing
a searching scrutiny, with consequent cost-cutting improvements in efficiency of operation and administration. Mr. Leach said he did not believe that there had been suf ficient change in the economy to warrant a change in current policy or in the degree of ease maintained. Current projections indicated that additional reserves would have to be supplied in the near future to maintain the degree of ease that had been the System's goal, and he believed that this should be done through the medium of reserve requirement changes rather than through open market operations. Although he thought that a case could be made for a reduction in the discount rate, he would not favor a reduction because, regardless of the facts, it would very probably be interpreted by some as a move toward further ease. He believed that the System had already made its contribution and he would not like to give any indication of wanting to ease further. A reduction in reserve requirements like wise might be regarded by some as an indication of further ease in explaining why the action had been the absence of some statement taken. had been no material changes in Mr. Leedy said that there the last meeting of the Committee. As to the Tenth District since continuing during the next he agreed with those who favored policy, to him that the as at present. It seemed period about three-week purchases of in making very large quite a bit Desk had accomplished degree of ease maintain about the in an attempt to Treasury bills
contemplated. In view of these purchases it was rather surprising to him that the bill rate had edged up to the extent that it had. Projections for the period after the next two weeks indicated that over the longer period, with seasonal demands coming into the picture, some permanent addition to reserves would be required, and he would like to see those reserves supplied by a reduction in reserve requirements. However, as had been suggested by others, he thought that an effort should be made to obtain general understanding that the action was not a further anti-recession move. Mr. Leedy did not see that any purpose would be served at time by a reduction of the discount rate. Certainly the the present rate need not be reduced as an anti-recession measure, and he had that a reduction might be interpreted as being of that some concern low level of borrowings at present, the nature. Actually, with the academic. Rather than to undertake to lead question seemed somewhat on the part of the System the short-term market by any indication prefer a later adjustment, if the discount rate, he would through light of the rates established become necessary in the that should by the market. he would continue as at present, In summary, Mr. Leedy said, it in the period of ease nor reducing the degree neither increasing actions aside from would take no other ahead, and he immediately in reserve require through a reduction needed reserves supplying when that became essential. ments
Mr. Allen said that the accumulating evidence that the economy had begun to move up slowly from its low point was showing up in the Seventh District in a number of ways. First, in all of the States of the district there was some improvement in labor market conditions. New claims for unemployment compensation were still running substantially above last year, but in recent months the percentage of increase over a year ago was declining. Second, department store sales, while markedly poorer than in the nation as a whole, were improving. Third, building activity showed signs of picking up more than seasonally. F. W. Dodge figures on contract awards for Region V, which includes Minnesota and the Dakotas in addition to Seventh District States, showed that in April the decline from a year ago was only 4 per cent, much less than in earlier months. Fourth, steel pourings at the present time were above 60 per cent of capacity in Detroit and over 70 per cent of capacity in Chicago. The April was 12 per cent for Detroit and 54 per cent for Chicago. low in cash r eceipts from farm marketings were showing very notice Fifth, 20 per cent above a in Iowa, with March receipts able improvement was somewhat above last year, whereas Illinois, year ago. Wisconsin Crop conditions over were slightly below. Indiana, and Michigan which meant that in District were favorable, most of the Seventh improved from conditions were substantially parts of the district a year ago.
Continuing, Mr. Allen noted that commercial and industrial loans of all weekly reporting banks in the nation dropped another $128 million in the three weeks ended June 4, of which total Seventh District banks accounted for almost one-fourth, with metal firms representing a large part of the drop in the district. In the week ended June 11, Chicago banks showed an increase of $21 million in commercial and industrial loans, which was undoubtedly associated with corporate tax payments. For obvious reasons, it was not expected that tax borrowing would come close to a year ago or even to March of this year. Money market banks as a group continued to maintain a surplus reserve position and borrowings at the discount window were practically negligible. Mr. Allen said that at the joint meeting of the head office and Detroit Branch directors held on June 12 the following were among some of the things mentioned. First, the steel industry had not decided whether to increase prices on the first of July. There of opinion and those who argued against an increase were differences and the threat of competing metals. mentioned industry statesmanship however, that prices would be increased. Second, It was believed, was to show price reductions the Sears Roebuck fall catalogue the first of July there 1-1/2 per cent. Third, effective averaging cent in the rate paid on savings would be decreases of 1/2 per In some cities where savings deposits by a number of institutions.
and loan associations are active, both those associations and the banks were going to reduce by 1/2 per cent and thereby retain exist ing differentials. Fourth, the favorable crop conditions would benefit the railroads in the area, which would be particularly welcome to those roads that had had hard going. Fifth, the directors from Michigan differed as to whether the existing contract stalemate in the auto industry was working to the benefit of the unions or management, but there seemed to be a majority feeling that time was on the side of the unions. Sixth, in Flint, where unemployment is high, bank deposits were steady, collections were excellent, and the mortgage business was picking up. It was said that persons with unencumbered homes were taking mortgages in order to retire indebtedness of various types, perhaps with encouragement from mortgage lenders. Seventh, the late May surge in auto sales was minimized in some quarters by the widespread use of selling con one study showed that new car sales had hit a tests. However, and had turned upward. Another recent poll indicated cyclical low buy more cars in the next twelve that consumers were planning to survey had indicated. It was understood months than an earlier date for 1959 models would be some that the average introduction New car inventories on May 31 were what earlier than last year. date a year ago, on the same below the figure which was 755,000, whereas a 45 days' sales inventory represented but the present
year ago the figure was 34 days. Production for the second quarter was estimated at 1 million cars, while the estimates for the third and fourth quarters were 600,000 and 1,250,000, respectively. Thus far, Mr. Allen said, it seemed agreed that the economy had begun to move upward, however slowly. The chief worry in recent months, as far as he was concerned, was not that the country had experienced a recession, because that was to be expected following the sustained boom and the general level of business had been quite good. Rather, it had been his worry that the recession would con tinue in a downward spiral. Inflationary tendencies were still such that he felt the System must try to call the turn and shift of ease just as soon as the upward movement seemed more from its policy he was not yet willing to say that in his judgment such definite, but come. For the next three weeks, he felt that the System a time had its best to stay just about where it was, erring neither should do on the side of ease nor on the side of restraint. Perhaps, however, three weeks from today to the point that the signs would be clearer other would be in order. In concluding, an overt act one way or the argue that temporary or he was not one who would Mr. Allen said by a reduction of reserve needs should be met seasonal reserve needs should be met he would say that those requirements. Instead, by open market operations. there had not been much change in Mr. Deming said that prospects had District. Agricultural in the Ninth conditions
diminished a little due to lack of adequate rai sections, but the situation was not serious and in fact was still quite good. Almost certainly, farm income would be higher than last year. On the nonagricultural side, expansion had been of something less than seasonal proportions. Nonagricultural employment in May was 1,360,000, about 35,000 less than in May 1957, while unemployment was estimated at 69,000, or about 36,000 more than a year earlier. Although unemployment had fallen seasonally in the last three months, the total number of un employed had continued to exceed last year's totals by about the same amount. In other words, the actual number of unemployed had fallen each month by about the same amount as last year but the decline started from a higher total. Roughly one-third of the employment drop in May from year-ago levels was in mining, with iron ore mining accounting for about 60 per cent of the decline and copper mining about 4O per cent. Thus mining employment was about 25 per cent less than a year ago, and it looked as though it was going to hang there for the balance of the year. Copper mining appeared to be showing a little more strength at the time and the Anaconda Copper Company had just announced present a little better in so things might be looking a price increase, was going along about summary, the Ninth District Montana. In affected as seriously by the as it had been and was not being
recession as some other regions. As to policy, Mr. Deming said he agreed with those who advocated about the same conditions as had prevailed for the past three weeks. He was content with current policy and with its execution. Mr. Mangels said that some recent rather preliminary reports covering business activity in the Twelfth District indicated that the usual spring pickup might be developing a little more favorably than appeared earlier. In the State of California, manufacturing employment increased more than seasonally in May, but for the district as a whole employment gains were about what was expected on a seasonal basis. In the Seattle area, air craft employment was a little better, while in Southern California there were reports that some companies expected to release about few months. Steel production in 5,000 employees within the next the district increased 8 per cent in May over April and production was now at about a 75 per cent rate, some 15 per cent higher than the national average. In the lumber business there had been some in both April and May. Douglas fir orders improved improvement months and plywood prices strengthened because of improved in both lumber the situation was about as it demand, but in other types of change in demand. In the construction had been, with little
industry, heavy engineering contracts showed a 25 per cent increase in May over April, although the total was still below a year ago, while FHA and VA applications were about double the level of May 1957. Bank loans had not changed much, but were up a little in the last three weeks, and San Francisco banks reported that applications for loans to pay taxes were nominal. Demand deposits were down but time deposits continued to increase. There had been no announcement of any change in the savings de posit interest rate but it was quite generally expected that effective the first of July there would be a reduction to about 2-1/2 per cent. The strategy appeared to call for announcing at about the same time a reduction in mortgage loan rates, and ap parently savings and loan associations also were going to follow somewhat the same technique. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank had been nominal; as to Federal funds, the large banks had and selling in about equal amounts although at lower been buying levels than in the past. that he sensed a somewhat firmer undertone Mr. Mangels said of both businessmen and the in the area on the part of confidence seen that the recession might be ap public. The possibility was however, that the with the further thought, proaching bottom, There appeared to be might take some time. bottoming-out process constructive purposes, but Mr. Mangels no shortage of credit for
was somewhat concerned about the amount of credit being used for speculative purposes, particularly in the Government securities market. He did not feel that the present degree of monetary ease should be increased, and he suggested that $500 million of free reserves be used as an objective, with the thought of staying rather close to that figure. He would not favor any change in the discount rate at this time nor would he like to recommend any change in reserve requirements at this time. The directive seemed to him satisfactory, although perhaps at the next meeting or some time thereafter, the Committee might want to give thought to a change. Mr. Irons said that on balance national developments were side; perhaps for the last six weeks or two on the encouraging trend had been in that direction. As to the Eleventh months the take time to identify the various develop District, he would not that economic conditions in the district ments but would simply say recent board meeting, directors good. At the most were unusually the tenor of their reports that if from the branches suggested by to discourage it. they would not do anything this was a recession the economy but the was a drag on oil industry, of course, The there seemed to be improving. situation the light of the said that in policy, Mr. Irons As to taking any action strongly against he would feel economic situation
which would add to the present degree of ease. Like Mr. Mills, he believed the System had been liberal in providing reserves, and he would be delighted if the market would firm up a little, In other words, he favored a policy of ease but not one as aggressive as that followed until recently. During the past three weeks, he said, the Account Management had done an excellent job under difficult conditions. It had managed to take up some of the sloppiness in the market and, by de-emphasizing the statistic of free reserves and being concerned more with the feel of the market and short-term rates, it had brought about a better situation. Mr. Irons said he would not favor any change in the discount rate since he saw no reason for a change; neither would he favor a reduction in reserve requirements at this time for he did not accomplish the objective of meeting think that a reduction would situation. Banks would not be likely to the anticipated seasonal waiting for a time in the future. sit still and hold reserves were reduced now and $400-$500 Rather, if reserve requirements the banks would act reserves were provided, million of additional when seasonal require funds quickly and subsequently, to invest the invested. With be found to be fully the banks would ments appeared, to feed in reserves it would be better in mind, he believed that If they open market operations. as needed, through gradually, and now, additional reserve requirements reduction in by a were supplied
reserves might have to be supplied later, thus providing a "double dose." Mr. Irons agreed with Mr. Robertson that the situation in the stock market should be watched closely in the light of the increasing amount of credit going into the market and that a change in margin requirements could be indicated in the not too distant future. He would not want to recommend changing the policy directive although, as he had said at recent Committee meetings, if anyone wanted to delete the word "further" from clause (b) of the directive, he would favor that. Mr. Erickson said that although not too many statistics were available for the month of May, those that were available indicated somewhat more strength than in April. Nevertheless, he could not say that optimism was evident in the First District. Most manufacturing indices were following roughly the national pattern, but shoes for the first four months of the year were 12 per cent below last year, as compared with a drop of 5 per Insured unemployment declined during May but cent nationally. for the month was still more than double the year-ago figure. 3 per cent for the first week in Department store sales were up they were 3 per cent behind 1957. June, but for the year to date better than last year, strength April collection record was The relative to basement sales, and continued in the main store sales dress sales. The increase in had been an unexpected there
Massachusetts consumer price index dropped .2 per cent in May, which was the first decline since last August. Registrations for summer camps began slowly this year, but by the end of April operations at 85 per cent of capacity were assured. Mr. Erickson said that when he considered all factors, in cluding seasonal factors, he would make no change in the policy directive or in the discount rate. He felt that the present posture of ease should neither be increased nor decreased, and certainly the target should not be changed. He would leave it to the Manager of the Account to judge the feel of the market. Mr. Szymczak said that although he would like to take a position similar to that expressed by Messrs. Mills, Robertson, and a little confused. There were many uncertainties in Irons, he was be a need for additional reserves due the economy and there would He felt that the Committee ought to seasonal and other factors. changes in the level from free reserve position, with to vary the permitted. He would favor reducing time to time as the market using open market time and then at a suitable reserve requirements of positive free permit a varying degree in reverse to operations Margin requirements from a set figure. getting away reserves, thus he did not feel of time, but in the course should be considered rate at present. in the discount be any change that there should of free reserves a fixed pattern from of departing For the purpose
as well as for the purpose of providing for seasonal needs, he would change reserve requirements now, since there might not be a chance to do so later. Chairman Martin referred to comments which he had made at the last Committee meeting about Federal Reserve policy and said he continued to feel that the current policy was about right. If so, he suggested, the System ought not to force its luck unduly. For the first time, he detected a feeling around the country that monetary policy might be too easy, and this was something that ought to be taken into consideration. On the matter of public psychology and interpretations of System policy, if it were not picture the best thing, in his opinion, for the flowing reserve and let things stay just about where would be to do nothing at all in progress and the wage-cost they were. With labor negotiations in the economy, he still a fundamental problem price relationship to take any overt asking for trouble it would be simply felt that In his opinion, for have to be explained. action which would could not be explained in reserve requirements example, a reduction long-run considerations. the basis of technical on satisfactorily in attempting to explain would be great difficulty Likewise, there was not an anti-recessionary discount rate in the that a reduction country to considered the that the System or an indication movement off. He of leveling than a period period rather be in a bearish he would not but personally might be wrong, and he was not certain
want to take action. In making these comments, he brought out, he was talking about the period of the next three weeks. Continuing, Chairman Martin said that the present situation was not one of recovery, boom, or decline. He then expressed the view that the best thing to do for the next three weeks would be to try to follow the color, feel, and tone of the market and not get unduly easier or tighter. He felt that the Account Management had done a good job in this respect during the past three weeks, respond ing when it had to respond. Unlike Mr. Johns, he thought that at times it would have been desirable to be a little less easy. Chairman Martin then said that it was his own view, and, he believed, the majority view--with some variations in degreeshould be no change at this time in the policy directive, that there reserve requirements. What might happen after the discount rate, or on July 8 was, of course, a different the next Committee meeting were approaching. He would not want story, since the summer doldrums any indication of Federal Reserve to give labor negotiators or others to validate a price level or on policy, he would not want thinking not want to play a larger role than to invalidate it, and he would play. While in his and credit policy should appropriately monetary the System should that of the majority, own view, and apparently be watched care the situation should where it was now, stay about color, and tone For the feel, next three weeks. fully during the
of the market, responsibility should be placed on the Management of the Account. Then, three weeks from now, another look could then be taken at the situation. Mr. Hayes questioned whether there was a clear majority opinion against a change in reserve requirements, stating that he sensed quite a lot of feeling that this was an opportunity to take such action. With reference to the comments made by Mr. Irons, it appeared from looking at the reserve projections of the New York Bank, and perhaps from the projections of the Board's staff also, that there would be an almost immediate reserve need and the banks a chance to use the reserves to expand their invest would not have ments. Martin replied that he fully understood the point. Chairman impossible to explain a in his view it would be almost However, the public on the basis of in reserve requirements to reduction that it would be a great and he felt technical considerations, to attempt such an explanation. mistake leaving aside the technical Mr. Mills commented that, to the point of view the Chairman and turning mentioned by problem to him that the anticipated by Mr. Hayes, it appeared expressed if the projections of reserves might, amounts need for substantial the only of reserve requirements make a reduction were realized, purchases of be very large alternative would choice. The logical
Treasury bills by the Account, and if the Account were to go in and purchase aggressively against the available supply of bills at a time when corporations and banks were back in the market, there would be a strong possibility of depressing bill yields to a very low level and increasing the spread between the bill rate and the discount rate to a point that would be distinctly unrealistic. He would not like to reduce reserve requirements but he was inclined this might be the only reasonable choice in the near to believe that future if present reserve projections came to pass. comments reflected his own stated that Mr. Mills' Mr. Fulton a reduction in reserve Mr. Leach said that in suggesting thinking, and not like to see the bill had in mind that he would requirements he had rate driven down too far. of the reserve projections, some further discussion After would bear the that the Board of Governors Chairman Martin said of reserves in mind. problem to be made at this meeting, regard to the decisions With comments he had in his previous inquired whether the Chairman as to general policy, the majority position correctly outlined the Chairman to Mr. Rouse, heard. Turning dissents were and no and in the directive for a change saw any need whether he asked in the negative. Mr. Rouse replied
Thereupon, upon motion duly made and seconded, the Committee voted unanimously to direct the Federal Re serve Bank of New York until otherwise directed by the Committee: (1) To make such purchases, sales, or exchanges (including replacement of maturing securities, and allow ing maturities to run off without replacement) for the System Open Market Account in the open market or, in the case of maturing securities, by direct exchange with the Treasury, as may be necessary in the light of current and prospective economic conditions and the general credit situation of the country, with a view (a) to relating the supply of funds in the market to the needs of commerce and business, (b) to contributing further by monetary ease to resumption of stable growth of the economy, and (c) to the practical administration of the Account; provided that the aggregate amount of securities held in the System Account (including commitments for the purchase or sale of securities for the Account) at the close of this date, other than special short-term certifi cates of indebtedness purchased from time to time for the temporary accommodation of the Treasury, shall not be or decreased by more than $1 billion increased (2) To purchase direct from the Treasury for the account of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (with in cases where it seems desirable, to issue discretion, participations to one or more Federal Reserve Banks) such amounts of special short-term certificates of indebted ness as may be necessary from time to time for the of the Treasury; provided that temporary accommodation such certificates held at any one time the total amount of by the Federal Reserve Banks shall not exceed in the aggre gate $500 million. that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Mr. Hayes reported House Association the publica discussed with the New York Clearing had House banks on required reserves, tion of aggregate figures for Clearing Bank, and Federal funds borrowings. from the Federal Reserve borrowings
-41l He recalled that in its report last year the Clearing House Association made such a proposal, except that the figures were to be made available only to the Clearing House banks. The New York Bank, on the other hand, felt that it would be helpful if those figures could be made public. A letter had now been received under date of June 2, 1958, stating that the Clearing House Association had discussed the matter and had concluded that the proposal was not acceptable. However, House would be willing to accept the plan if it the Clearing for making public similar information were expanded to provide for banks in other cities. said that although he had some sympathy for Mr. Hayes he thought that the signifi of the Clearing House, the position He went on had been greatly exaggerated. cance of the matter to the Presidents' Conference to say that he had reported the question to the Federal and had suggested referring yesterday to consider the was already preparing study group, which funds than the Clearing broader statistics desirability of collecting House could done, the Clearing If this were House had suggested. and would be into the matter System was looking told that the be in the near future. definitive reply to give any unable was seen any objection inquired whether Chairman Martin by Mr. Hayes, the lines suggested the matter along to handling
and no objection was heard. that the next meeting of the Federal Open It was agreed Market Committee would be held on Tuesday, July 8, 1958, at 10:00 a.m. Thereupon the meeting adjourned. Assistant Secretary
Also: Record of Policy Actions