May 17, 1951 FOMC Minutes: Full Text
A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Wash ington on Thursday, May 17, 1951, at 10:05 a.m. PRESENT: Mr. Martin, Chairman Mr. Sproul, Vice Chairman Mr. Eccles Mr. Evans Mr. Gidney Mr. Gilbert Mr. Leedy Mr. Norton Mr. Powell Mr. Szymczak Mr. Vardaman Mr. A. H. Williams Mr. Carpenter, Secretary Mr. Sherman, Assistant Secretary Mr. Vest, General Counsel Mr. Thomas, Economist Messrs. Bopp, Irons, Thompson, and John H. Williams, Associate Economists Mr. Rouse, Manager, System Open Market Account Mr. Thurston, Assistant to the Board of Governors Mr. Riefler, Assistant to the Chairman, Board of Governors Mr. Ralph A. Young, Director, Division of Research and tatistics, Board of Governors Mr. Youngdahl, Chief, Government Finance Sec tion, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Mr. Ralph F. Leach, Economist, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Messrs. Hugh Leach, C. E. Young, Bryan, and Earhart, alternate members of the Federal Open Market Committee Messrs. Erickson, Johns, and Peyton, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, St. Louis, and Minneapolis, respectively. Upon motion duly made and seconded, and unanimous vote, William McChesney Martin, by of the Federal Open Jr., was elected Chairman until the election Committee to serve Market
of his successor at the first meeting of the Committee after February 29, 1952, with the understanding that in the event of the dis continuance of his official connection with the Board of Governors during that period, he would cease to have any official connection with the Federal Open Market Committee. At the meeting of the Committee on March 1, 1951, it was noted that no alternate member of the Federal Open Mrket Committee had been elected for Mr. Gilbert, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. At this meeting it was stated that advice of the election of Malcolm H. Bryan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, as alternate member for Mr. Gilbert for the remainder of the year ending February 29, executed the customary oath of received, and that he had 1952, had been office. Upon motion duly made and seconded, and vote, the minutes of the meetings by unanimous of the Federal Open Market Committee held on January 31, February 6-8, March 1-2, and March 1951, were approved. 8, duly made and seconded, and Upon motion the actions of the execu by unanimous vote, committee of the Federal Open Market tive as set forth in the minutes of the Committee the executive committee held on meetings of February 14, Febru 31, February 8, January ary 26, March 2, March 3, March 8, March 13, 1951, were approved, ratified, and April 5, and confirmed. the Federal Re prepared at open market operations A report of 8 to May 11, 1951, in the period March of New York covering serve Bank Rouse. He also upon by Mr. presented and commented clusive, was then
presented a supplementary report covering commitments executed from May 12 to May 16, 1951, inclusive. Copies of both reports have been placed in the files of the Federal Open Mrket Committee. Upon motion duly made and seconded, and by unanimous vote, the transactions in the System account for the period March 8 to May 16, 1951, inclusive, were approved, ratified, and confirmed. There was then presented a report by members of the staff of the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors, illustrated by chart slides, covering the economic situation and referred to by Mr. Ralph Young as a report on "Control Problems as Seen During a Lull in the Boom." Following the presentation, Mr. Thomas made a statement in which he emphasized that the answer to the continuing inflationary pressures could not be found in more production of goods and services when the economy was operating at capacity, that primarily the inflationary pres sures arose from the creation of additional money through credit expansion and through increased turnover of money. Vigorous restraints on credit expansion would have to continue if the development of substantial further inflation was to be avoided. Mr. Thomas noted that if the defense program developed as contemplated and as the needs of the Treasury for refunding remainder of this year, there would of securities progressed during the for credit from both banks and other lenders, probably be continued demands at a reduced rate. While some expansion would probably be although credit securities, nonbank continue to sell Government institutions would lending
investors as a group would increase their holdings. The Federal Reserve would be called upon to purchase Government securities or increase advances to member banks in order to supply some of the funds needed to meet credit demands and also to cover a drain on bank reserves resulting from the sea sonal currency demand and a probable outflow of gold. In the aggregate, he suggested the possibility of a further increase in Reserve Bank credit by the end of 1951 of as much as $3 billion. These needs for reserves would provide an element of restraint, particularly if a policy of reluctant buy ing is followed. In a discussion of credit policy in the months ahead when develop ments in the international situation were so uncertain, Mr. Eccles raised the question whether, if the Federal Government budget were balanced, there for any expansion in bank credit, and whether the objec was justification tive of Federal Reserve policy should not be to avoid supplying additional the market except the amounts required by a rise in demand for reserves to or an over-all expansion of production. currency, a gold outflow, various factors in the con a general discussion of the There was increase the amount of which would tend to tinuing inflationary situation the objective of and it was agreed that Reserve credit outstanding Federal increase as much as possible. should be to limit the System credit policy Vardaman left the meeting. the discussion Mr. During development not previously stated that the principal Chairman Martin on was the announcement the last meeting Committee since to the reported not call the that he would of the Treasury by the Secretary M.y 8, 1951,
September 2's of 1951-53, and that there would be issued a new series of tax savings notes, both of which actions were recommended to the Treasury by the executive committee on May 7, 1951. Chairman Martin also stated that the Treasury had decided not to announce it refunding of securities matur ing in June, July, or August until the latest practicable date, which prob ably would be late this month, and that this too was in accordance with the recommendations of the executive committee. In a discussion of open market policy, reference was made to a memo randum prepared in the Board's offices under date of March 16, 1951, with respect to the conversion of System holdings of 2-3/4 per cent bonds of 1975 80 into 5-year 1-1/2 per cent notes. Copies of the memorandum were distributed to the members of the Committee before the meeting and a copy has been placed in the files of the Federal Open Market Committee. Mr. Sproul stated that the memorandum apparently had been prepared on the assumption that there would be an exchange of the nonmarketable bonds for marketable notes, and that the only question was when and on what kind of a schedule it should be made. His own judgment, he stated, was that it would be desirable to convert $1 billion of the bonds at the present time, and an additional $500 million on April 1, $500 million on October 1, 1951, disposition to be might be given to the at which time consideration 1952, remaining in the System account. made of the $700 million the 5-year notes to be obtained in exchange Mr. Rouse stated that date if converted the sane maturity bonds would bear 2-3/4 per cent for
anytime between now and the end of September 1951. There was a general discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of converting the nonnarketable bonds under any of the suggested alternative procedures and at the conclusion of the discussion, upon motion by Mr. Sproul, it was agreed unanimously that steps should be taken at an appropriate time between now and the end of September to convert $1 billion of present System holdings of the 2-3/4 per cent nonmarketable bonds of 1 75-80 into 5-year 1-1/2 per cent notes to be dated April 1, 1951, that an additional $500 million should be converted into notes to be dated October 1, 1951, and that an additional $500 million should be converted into notes to be dated April 1, 1952, with the understanding that further consideration would be given at a later meet ing as to the program for conversion of the remaining $700 million held in the System account. suggested that, inasmuch as the terms of the new Chairman Martin to be made by the Treasury would not be announced until refunding offering this month, the executive committee be authorized to the latter part of the limits of the general direction to be issued at this determine, within full Committee to the executive committee, the basis upon meeting by the the System account in bills and would be conducted for which transactions after the announcement was made. other short-term securities was approved unani This suggestion mously. suggested that System operations in longer Chairman Martin then than had been fol more aggressive manner be carried on in a term issues on an experimental operation be undertaken that such an lowed in the past,
basis with a view to probing the market for Government securities to see if there would be developed a more active interest on the part of potential buyers of such securities. He also suggested that the Committee authorize him to appoint a committee to consist of himself as chairman and not less than two or more than four other members of the Federal Open Market Committee to make a study of the scope and adequacy of the Government securities market during the coming months with the understanding that the committee would be authorized to call on outside assistance if that should be considered to be necessary and that it would report to the executive committee and to the full Com mittee. Chairman Martin emphasized that his suggestion for a study of this type was in no sense a criticism of the operations of the System account. In response to questions, he indicated that there was a need for a broader market for Government securities, that perhaps there would be value in studying the British Government securities market, that the time may come when the Federal Open Market Committee might find it necessary to change the procedure whereby it did business with only a small number of qualified dealers, and that he hoped the study proposed would make some worthwhile suggestions along these and other lines. Several other members of the Committee expressed the view that it to have a study such as that proposed by Chairman Martin. would be desirable upon motion duly made and Thereupon, Martin was authorized to seconded, Chairman to make a study of the appoint a committee securities market along the lines Government he suggested.
Turning to a discussion of the suggestion for more aggressive op erations in the System account, Chairman Martin said that the Government securities market had suffered a distinct shock since the Treasury-Federal Reserve accord was announced on March 4, that there was a feeling in some quarters that the market for Government securities was deteriorating be cause of pressures from more sources than institutional investors who were liquidating securities to meet previous commitments, and that he would like to see the Committee authorize the use of, say, $250 million to carry on a more aggressive operation with a view to probing the extent of the underly ing demand for Government securities. This, he said, would mean that instead of waiting for dealers to offer securities to the System when they were under pressure there would be times when the System might have aggres sive bids in the market. The general purpose of such a probing operation bring out buying which could result in a stronger and more would be to refunding issues that would be market for the large volume of Treasury certain coming on the market. feel the Committee had been entirely Mr. Sproul stated that he did not in exactly the manner suggested it had not been aggressive passive although a shock to the Government that there had been Martin. He agreed by Chairman think there was deteriora but he did not in recent weeks securities market that the market had was true, and that quite the reverse tion in the market, which reflected a psychology and was not one shown stability and steadiness that could lead of a feeling there was no indication He added that of fear.
to failure of Treasury refunding issues over the next six months. He went on to say that if the full Committee wished to direct the executive committee, and the executive committee to direct the New York Bank and Manager of the account, to operate in a more aggressive fashion, it could do so without any special authorization of a specific amount to be used for that purpose. Mr. Sproul added that it should be remembered that the Government securities market is sui generis, that it is the market in which most adjustments of cash positions are now made, that our operations in the market are conducted in a "gold fish bowl" with weekly publication of our purchases and sales, and that when we buy or sell we use a special kind of money, namely, reserve funds. For these reasons, he said, the Government securities market and operations in it are quite dissimilar to the stabilizing operations of pri vate interests in other security markets. During a comment on Chairman Martin's suggestions, Mr. Eccles stated that he felt it would be worth while undertaking such an operation with a relatively small volume of funds, even though it involved the risk indicated Sproul of adding to reserve funds in the market. by Mr. Other members of the Committee expressed themselves as favoring an along the lines suggested by Chairman Martin, and it experimental operation the Federal Reserve Bank of New that, in issuing instructions to was agreed executive committee should the System account, the for transactions in York of the foregoing discussion. do so in the light Before leaving the meet Secretary's note: Vardaman stated to the Secretary that ing Mr.
he would favor whatever recommendations were made by Chairman Martin as to actions to be taken by the Committee. Thereupon, upon motion duly made and seconded, the following direction to the executive committee was approved unanimously with the understanding that the limitation contained in the direction would include commitments for the System open market account: The executive committee is directed, until otherwise di rected by the Federal Open Market Committee, to arrange for such transactions for the ,ystem open market account, either in the open market or directly with the Treasury (including purchases, sales, exchanges, replacement of maturing securities, and letting maturities run off without replacement), as may be necessary, in the light of current and prospective economic conditions and the general credit situation of the country, with a view to exercis ing restraint upon inflationary developments, to maintaining orderly conditions in the Government security market, to relating the supply of funds in the market to the needs of commerce and business, and to the practical administration of the account; provided that the aggregate amount of securities held in the close of this date other than special short-term account at the purchased from time to time for the certificates of indebtedness the Treasury shall not be increased temporary accommodation of or decreased by more than $2,000,000,000. is further directed, until otherwise The executive committee Committee, to arrange for the directed by the Federal Open Market direct from the Treas open market account purchase for the System short-term certificates of indebted ury of such amounts of special from time to time for the temporary ness as nay be necessary the total amount of Treasury; provided that accommodation of the any one time shall not in the account at certificates held such exceed $1,000,000,000. was tentatively set the next meeting of the Committee The date for of the Presidents' that a meeting with the understanding 3, 1951, for October in that week. be held earlier would Conference
Thereupon the meeting adjourned. Secretary.
Also: Record of Policy Actions·Minutes of the Executive Committee, March 13, 1951·Minutes of the Executive Committee, April 5, 1951·Minutes of the Executive Committee, May 7, 1951·Minutes of the Executive Committee, May 17, 1951